What’s Up with New Zealand?

Brandon Christensen History, Law , , , , , , , , , , ,

Economist Scott Sumner’s 2010 piece on the unacknowledged success of neoliberalism (which I linked to yesterday and you should definitely read or reread) poses an interesting question:

There are two obvious outliers [to aggressive neoliberal reforms]. Norway, the highest-income country, is much richer than other countries with similar levels of economic freedom, and New Zealand, at 80 on the economic freedom scale and only $27,260 in per capita income (US PPP dollars), is somewhat poorer than expected […] Perhaps New Zealand’s disappointing performance is due to its remote location and its comparative advantage in agriculture holding it back in an increasingly globalized economy in which many governments subsidize farming.

Rather than challenge Sumner’s thoughts as to why New Zealand is much poorer (I think his guess explains a lot), I think I can add to it: The Maori.

The Maori are the indigenous inhabitants of New Zealand, and can be compared – socially – to the Native Americans of the New World or the aborigines of Australia. Unfortunately I know next to nothing about the Maori (or other South Pacific cultures), but I do know how to draw rough inferences about things by using data!

The Maori comprise about 15% of New Zealand’s population, whereas in other states settled by Anglo colonies the population of the natives relative to the overall population of the country is minute (aborigines in Australia comprise 3% of the population, for example, and in Canada and the US the indigenous make up about 2%).

The relatively large percentage of indigenous citizens in New Zealand can better explain why New Zealand is an outlier among rich countries, but I also think it’s important to ask why the Maori (and other indigenous populations in Anglo-settled colonies) have failed to match the demographic trends of their European and Asian counterparts.

Institutions are, to me, the obvious answer, but I’m curious as to what the rest of you think. I’d also like to add that I don’t think enough of us think about the issue of land (as in ‘land, labor and capital’ when we discuss the huge demographic gaps found between – for lack of better terms – settlers and natives in Anglo-American countries).

Around the Web: Highly Recommended Reading Edition

Brandon Christensen Current Events, Links , , , , , , , , ,
  1. Fantastic post about Uganda’s role (and a Ugandan’s perspective) in the ongoing South Sudan conflict.
  2. Sexual mores: Love in a cold climate. I live in California, but my ancestors come from the frozen wastelands of Scandinavia and northern Germany. Rawr!
  3. The unacknowledged success of neoliberalism.
  4. One of my favorite bloggers (Scott Sumner) is joining one of my favorite group blogs (EconLog). I’m a huuuuge fan of group blogs (they’re pretty much the only type of blog I read), so I hope he decides to stay on as a permanent contributor.
  5. Inglorious Revolutions. Why the West is kinda, sorta hypocritical when it comes to the Arab Spring.

Global Junk Science: a Small Window

Jacques Delacroix Current Events , , , , , , , , , , ,

I meet two young traveling Frenchmen at the coffee shop. I like the new French more than I liked the old. For one thing, they tend to know English fairly well. This helps them shed the monumental French parochialism (“provincialisme,” in French). Perhaps as a consequence, they are generally more friendly than the previous generations of French people I have known. And, by the way, I wish I had the power to end a tenacious legend once for all: It is not the case that the French “hate Americans.” They just don’t like anyone very much; they are not cordial to any strangers. I feel a glacial wind blow all over me whenever I land in France, that’s although my French is perfect, by the way.

OK, that was a digression. I was also well disposed toward these two young French men because they reminded me of me: It’s true that I itched-hiked across the country and back, at their age. One of them is helping his mother with two restaurants, one on the Riviera, one in Strasbourg; the latter is called, “le globe-trotter.” I like that. The other French guy, age 22, is studying engineering, engineering of “sustainable energy,” he specifies.

I am a weak man, I have trouble with temptation; I can’t resist this one, of course.

Why sustainable, I ask. Isn’t it true that we have more proven reserves of petroleum than ever before?

He readily assents but, he asserts, petroleum is very bad for the environment.

Interestingly, that young man is not especially eager to tell me about climate change. Instead, he affirms that the burning of fossil fuels causes holes in the ozone layer with deadly consequences for humans. This sounds like deja vu (as we say in English), something from ten years ago, but what do I know? It’s possible that the problem has come back and that I am not aware of it. I make a note to check into it.

What kind of alternative power producing methods do you favor? I ask him further. I am eager to avoid discussions of solar power because I live in Santa Cruz where I get more info about the topic than I can begin to digest, including a solid dose of mendaciousness.

Let me sum up my non-dogmatic position about solar power. First, I recently disconnected my old passive solar water pre-heating system because it did more harm than good. Perhaps, a better person, a more virtuous person (I was going to say a more pious person) would have obtained better results from it than I did. Me, I don’t have the time or the patience; I have many unimportant things to do. Second, every time I ask for estimates about installing a modern solar heating or electricity producing system in my house, I am forced to realize that amortizing it would take thirty years. It’s not worth the bother. Perhaps, if I were a twenty year-old home owner. Perhaps if I put a little religious zeal behind the project. Third, I think solar power is wonderful doing what it’s currently doing all over America. I mean providing power for emergency telephones on highways and keeping boat batteries charged during long lulls in boat use.

Incidentally, reliance on solar power in poor countries such as India is another topic altogether. I said nothing about it this time

More incidentally, my skepticism is not of the same nature as the faith of many solar advocates. It’s no symmetrical to it. I don’t “believe” that solar power is worthless. All it would take would be a single good technical innovation in solar energy production to erase my skepticism. It would not take a profound experience of the kind St Paul experienced on the way to Damascus, for example. If I became converted, I would still be the same person, with all the same few virtues and, I hope, the same vices.

What sustainable technologies do you favor? I ask the young man pretend-innocently.

Tide-activated power plants, he answers simply.

It turns out I have some familiarity with the topic. I lived near the first one ever built anywhere. It was in France, inaugurated in the early sixties. I skin dived and speared fished and collected shellfish both upstream and downstream of it. I have no objection to this technology. Forty years later, we know it does not do any serious damage to anything. Even sailors have become used to it. There is even a certain elegant simplicity in its design: Tide comes up, turbines activate, water comes back down, turbines activate again. That first tidal dam doubles as a bridge that was needed at that spot anyway. No problem, as far as I am concerned. I am pretty sure the tidal power technology must have improved in fifty years; it should have, yet….

I ask the engineering student: Why are there only four in the whole world? Does this indicate something wrong, impractical, uneconomical, or something with this technology?

No, he states with perfect self-assurance but with courtesy, you must be wrong; there are thousands of them worldwide.

So, if I looked, I reply, I would easily find hundreds of tide-powered plants?

Absolutely, he affirms.

I go home and I do the obvious, the easiest thing: I look it up in Wikipedia. I was wrong, it turns out; there aren’t only four tidal plants in the world in actual operation, there are eight (8). I was wrong by fifty percent or one hundred per cent depending how you count.

Then I turn to the Wikipedia entry on “ozone hole.”

It has an unfinished look. It seems much like a work in progress or perhaps, a work abandoned in mid-course . The only citation in anything resembling a scholarly journal dates back to 1985. It’s side by side with references to the Huffington Post and even to Mother Jones. There is also in the entry interesting and reasonable speculation about nefarious indirect effects of ozone depletion on melanoma (skin cancer). There is no real health study, not even a crude one.

My young French interlocutor seems wrong here too.

Is it possible that the a deeper search would shore up more sturdily the case for ozone depletion and human health? It’s possible. I think it’s frankly unlikely. There are enough English speakers on the globe interested in such issues for the Wiki entry to be reasonably well updated.

How about the tidal plants? Could there be many more? My answer is a resounding “No.” Power plants are easy to count and hard to miss. Perhaps Wikipedia is much out of date, perhaps there are twice more than it indicates. That would be sixteen (16). That is still a tiny number. My original question remains intact: What’s wrong with this superficially appealing technology?

Why did I find out in my conversation with this young hands-on environmental activist and through its follow-up?

1 The French educational system (or his particular engineering school) is very bad;

2 He does not care about facts. He does not care enough to check with ten keystrokes something important to him. Sounds familiar?

You decide.

From the Comments: Incentives, Academe, Science and Grants

Brandon Christensen Comments , , , , ,

In my experience scientists [including social scientists and including me] are incented to get more money for their research. The effects of funding on research can be worrisome. For example for reasons of politics and public opinion a disproportionate amount of money was devoted to HIV research. By disproportionate I mean that in my opinion there would be more bang for buck on bigger public health problems like malaria, certain cancers etc.

However does that mean that I should doubt the findings of the virologists, immunologists, and all the other -ists doing the research? I think not. Certainly not in the aggregate. Chasing the bucks might lead them to doing research in the ‘wrong’ area so to speak but it won’t lead them to falsify their results.

This is from Dr Amburgey (he’s real) and it comes from an exchange on climate change/global warming. I raised a concern I had about the incentive structure built into the scientific community of the West, but Dr Amburgey’s logic has put my skepticism to rest.

2013: Thanks for a great year

Brandon Christensen Current Events, Links ,

Today marks NOL‘s third year of existence.

It’s been a great ride so far. Below are some of our most popular posts of the year, but first I’d like to highlight the new ventures of some of our guest bloggers over the year.

As far as top 2013 posts at NOL goes, here are some of the most read:

Guillermo Pineda’s post “El grave error del libertarianismo guatelmateco…” was the most most-read post of 2013.

Andrew Roth’s post “Impeach James Clapper” was also a viral hit and Fred Foldvary’s “New Mexico’s Police Breaking Badly” spent a few days at the top of /r/libertarian’s front page.

Warren Gibson’s “Open Season on White Males” was his most popular 2013 post, and his 2012 post on “…Raising the Minimum Wage” went viral.

New notewriters Adam Magoon’s “Debunking the Wage Slavery Myth” and LA Repucci’s “Statists applaud death of unarmed mother…” garnered a lot of reads and our Russian correspondent’s (Evgeniy) debut post “Just to say hello” was wildly popular as well.

Judging by the amount of reads Jacques Delacroix’s post on “Unequal Poverty…” received, I think it’s safe to say that it proved to be controversial, and Payam Ghorbanian’s guest post on the recent Iranian nuclear talks garnered the most reactions.

Rick, Audrey, Michael, Tibor, Jesper, Matthew, Claudio and guest author Peter Miller all put in valuable time to contribute to a better understanding of liberty and freedom. Our third year is going to be our best yet, so don’t go anywhere!

Лицо терроризма в России

Evgenii Grigorev Current Events , ,

Я возвращаюсь с новой записью. К сожалению, она лишена праздничного настроения, так как за минувшие сутки в России произошли два ужасающих, бесчеловечных террористических акта, перечеркнувших так называемую “атмосферу Нового Года”.

Я даже не знаю, с чего начать… Думаю, многие из вас смотрят новости по вашим информационным каналам и в курсе террористических актов, которые произошли сегодня и вчера в одном из городов России. Я говорю про город Волгоград, крупнейший южный транспортный узел России, который за последние три месяца трижды подвергался атаке террористов. И вот, сегодня – два новых теракта, с интервалом в 17 часов. Террористы-смертники привели в действие взрывные устройства в здании городского вокзала и в троллейбусе, битком набитом людьми в час пик. По предварительным итогам, пострадало более 100 человек, погибло более 30. Среди тех, кому оказалось не суждено дожить до 2014 года – несколько детей, а также женщин.

Не буду углубляться в подробности. Слишком тяжело про это писать. При желании вы и сами можете поискать в интернете информацию.

За последние 20 лет лицо терроризма в России сильно изменилось. Если раньше мы имели дело с лидерами бандитов, управляющими достаточно крупными бандами, то сейчас имеем кучу разрозненных террористических шаек исламистского характера. Раньше с боевиками можно было хоть как-то договориться. У них была своя программа, требования, и исходя из этого их действия можно было хоть как-то предугадать и предупредить. Сейчас же мы сталкиваемся с фактами неприкрытого насилия против мирного населения. Не выдвигается никаких требований. идет откровенная война. Терроризм ради терроризма. Скажите мне, какие политические последствия может иметь взрыв в автобусе или метро? Да никаких. Жертвами выступает исключительно мирное население. От террористов, которые действуют ради самого процесса терроризма нет спасения. Их действия не предугадать, потому что в них нет логики и последовательности. А отсутствие хоть каких-то требований сводит на нет возможность конструктивного диалога.

Взять хотя бы для примера террористов, с которыми воюет Америка. Там все более-менее понятно. Какие-то требования, какие-то известные исламистские группировки. А у нас что? Никто не может понять. И судя по терактам, спецслужбы не могут их предотвратить или предупредить… Это ужасно, и у меня больше нет слов.

Я все сказал. Эта запись сделана “на эмоциях”. Надеюсь вы никогда не столкнетесь с тем, с чем сталкиваемся мы. Счастливого Нового Года. Я атеист, но тем не менее, сохранит вас Господь.

Related articles

California’s Neighborhood Legislature Initiative

Fred Foldvary Current Events, Politics , , , , , , , ,

In California, the voters are able to put proposed laws on the ballot if they gather enough signatures. This process is called an “initiative.” The legislature may also place propositions on the ballot, a process called a “referendum”.

One of the ballot propositions for 2014 is “The Neighborhood Legislature Reform Act,” which would decentralize the election of representatives in order to reduce the political power of special interests such as corporations, labor unions, and trial lawyers. This reform would shift political power to the people of California. (For the text of the initiative, see this.)

Like the US Congress, the California legislature has two houses, a Senate with 40 members and an Assembly with 80 members. The population of California is 38 million. The districts for the California Senate now have 950,000 persons, a greater number than for Congressional districts, while about 475,000 people live in each assembly district. It now takes a million dollars to win a California Senate seat.

The Neighborhood initiative would instead create Senate districts of 10,000 persons and Assembly districts of 5000. These neighborhood districts would form a greater association of 100 neighborhood districts within the current districts. The association council would elect a representative to the state legislature, thus keeping the same number of representatives in the state legislature. However, the final approval of a law would require a vote by all the neighborhood district representatives. That vote could be done on an Internet web site, as corporations now do for their elections of board members and propositions.

The Neighborhood Legislature proposition was initiated by John H. Cox, who has been a lawyer, real-estate management executive, and local office holder. The aim is to have the measure on the November 2014 ballot. That will require over 800,000 valid signatures, 8 percent of the votes cast for governor in the last election, by May 19. That is a high hurtle, which usually requires several million dollars to pay for signature gatherers. This initiative has already made a splash, with articles in the Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, The Los Angeles Times, and other media.

I have been writing for years on reforming democracy with tiny voting districts in a bottom-up structure. Back in 2007, I wrote an article, “Democracy Needs Reforming”, proposing that the political body be divided into cells of 1000 persons, each with a neighborhood council. A group of these would then elect a broader-area council, and so on up to the national congress or parliament. The state legislature would then only need one house, rather than a bicameral legislature that mimics the US Congress and British parliament. This “cellular democracy” would eliminate the inherent demand for campaign funds of mass democracy.

The Neighborhood Legislature Reform Act would not be quite as thorough a reform as a cellular democracy based on tiny districts, but it has the same basic concepts: smaller voting groups, and bottom-up multi-level representation. This initiative would indeed greatly reduce the demand for campaign funds that are needed in today’s huge California electoral districts.

It will be a great challenge to obtain the needed signatures. It could happen if the media provide editorial support and coverage. At any rate, the fact that this initiative is taking place will go a long ways to publicizing the gross corruption of democracy that is taking place, and the only effective remedy to the inherent dysfunction of mass democracy. Many reforms are needed in today’s governments, reforms in taxation, pensions, environmental protection, transit, criminal law, and economic deprivation. The main reason that useful reforms are not taking place is the subsidy-seeking and reform-blocking induced by mass democracy. The initiative process in California and other states is a way to circumvent the corrupt legislature, but in a large state like California, that process itself requires big money.

It will be interesting to watch the progress of the Neighborhood Legislature initiative, and to watch the special interests jump in with misleading negative ads. If this goes on the ballot and wins, it will be a victory for the people and a defeat for the moneyed special interests.

(Note: this article first appeared in The Progress Report)

Around the Web

Brandon Christensen Current Events, Links , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
  1. An Israeli (grad student) and an Iranian (grad student) on the way forward
  2. An Anarchist’s Proposal for Limited Constitutional Government
  3. Red White: Why a Founding Father of Postwar  Capitalism (Keynesianism) Spied for the Soviets
  4. Is Fascism Returning to Europe?
  5. Freedom of Speech: True and False (Duck Dynasty edition)

Предновогодняя запись

Evgenii Grigorev Current Events

Привет, друзья! В этот раз не хочу говорить о политике. Нельзя же о ней вечно говорить. Сперва хочу поздравить всех с наступающим Новым Годом и Рождеством! Желаю всем читателям и авторам блога исполнения желаний в новом году, а также разумных мыслей в голове и реализации своего творческого потенциала. В современном сложном мире очень сложно оставаться индивидуальной личностью. Обилие высокотехнологичных устройств, стандартизированных образов мышления (это касается не только внешнего вида, но и принятых обществом норм мышления) и прочих обобщений оставляет нам все меньше и меньше шансов развиваться как индивидуальные гармоничные личности. Я надеюсь, что думающие люди (коих в блоге NOL большинство) смогут сохранить “собственное я” и не растерять весь тот энтузиазм, который так присущ их исследованиям. Пусть в новом году сообщество будет развиваться.

Хороших выходных!

Cronismo…você sabe o que é isto?

Claudio Shikida Current Events, Economics , , , , ,

Não??? Então você não deve estar morando no Brasil. Ok, você mora, mas não sabe do que se trata. Um livro que divulgou este conceito no Brasil é o do Lazzarini. Mas você pode aprender também sobre isto neste video. Este blogueiro (junto com o Leo Monasterio) já falava de rent-seeking no Brasil desde o final do século passado. A galera, contudo, custou a nos acompanhar na literatura. Ao longo destes primeiros 13 anos do século, vimos vários autores e artigos sobre o tema. Claro, tudo começou com o Jorge Vianna Monteiro (embora muita gente não pareça saber fazer pesquisa científica direito e, portanto, não faça a revisão da literatura corretamente).

O termo rent-seeking nunca saiu muito das conversas de economistas e alguns poucos cientistas políticos esclarecidos. Claro, havia também a competição dos marxistas, sempre receosos de perderem sua platéia para teorias concorrentes. Mas, aos poucos, as coisas mudaram. Aí alguém, acho que foi o Gary Becker, popularizou o termo capitalismo de compadres (ou de compadrio). Paralelamente, a mudança de gerações nas redações de jornais e a tecnologia ajudaram a popularizar as idéias de Tullock, Olson, Buchanan e outros. Mesmo assim, convenhamos, “capitalismo de compadres” não é um termo muito retórico, no sentido da McCloskey.

Aí, agora, veio este novo termo, o tal “cronismo”. No fundo, no fundo, fala-se do mesmo fenômeno. Mas parece que este termo está se popularizando com certa facilidade. Ajuda, claro, a corrupção desenfreada que assistimos no Brasil desde a primeira administração da Silva (agora também conhecido como “Lula”, “Lula da Rose”, “o Barba”, dentre outros divertidos apelidos). O desencanto dos eleitores não deixa de ter um impacto positivo: o aumento do ceticismo e do grau de exigência quanto às suas demandas políticas. Claro que isto não necessariamente melhora a qualidade do setor público ou diminui a corrupção, mas o realismo trazido pelo ceticismo é sempre saudável.

Still on vacation but wanted to make sure everyone saw this…

Adam Magoon Current Events, Economics

Weigh in below on this meddling in India by their reserve bank.

Happy Holidays

Brandon Christensen Liberty

I hope everybody is enjoying their holiday season. I know I have been. My apologies for how slowly things have been going here at NOL, but things’ll pick up again once the holidays are over and life gets back to normal.

I hope you all stay tuned!

Amo muito o bem público produzido pelo setor privado

Claudio Shikida Current Events, Economics , , , , ,

20131227_101803

Pois é, leitor. Sempre que alguém vem a BH eu fico sem saber o que dizer. Aqui, convenhamos, não tem nada. Nada mesmo. Mas aí o setor privado, muito mais do que esta prefeitura ineficiente (vem assim desde a época do Célio de Castro e seus sucessores, mas não era muito melhor antes…enfim…), consegue me salvar.

Bem público produzido pelo setor privado com motivos “egoístas” (se ganhar dinheiro para pagar as contas é egoísmo, então Luis F. Verissimo e eu somos os mais egoístas do mundo…junto com você, leitor). Exemplo que poderia estar em qualquer livro-texto de Economia. Gostei tanto que fiz todo um malabarismo para comer na bandeja sem sujar o sanduíche e as fritas (e, sim, eu consegui fazer isto!) para guardar esta excelente peça de propaganda.

Aliás, gostei tanto que a empresa ganhou o direito a uma propaganda gratuita aqui.

E agora, para algo mais técnico…

O que é um bem público? Antes que você pense no senso comum, esta é uma definição técnica, um conceito teórico. Um bem público é um bem não-excludente e não-rival. O melhor exemplo disto está no livro-texto do Mankiw. Uma estrada com pedágio é excludente (sem pedágio, portanto, não-excludente). Uma estrada congestionada é rival (porque o espaço entre carros diminui. O consumo do mesmo pedaço de chão é rivalizado com outro motorista e seu pequeno SUV…). Sacou?

Bom, então fica meio óbvio – ou então você dá uma pesquisada na internet, ok? – que alguém que busque lucrar não tem muito motivo para produzir um bem público…em princípio. Por que? Porque não dá para lucrar tanto quanto se você produz um bem privado (rival e excludente). Claro que esta classificação do bem ou serviço em “privado” e “público” é uma questão de grau (além do fato de existirem bens rivais, não-excludentes e não-rivais, excludentes). Mais ainda, o grau pode ser alterado conforme a tecnologia mude. Pense no caso da TV. Há algumas décadas, era impossível vender um pacote de canais como um bem privado (o que se fazia era vender um bem público (o pacote de canais) com um financiamento via propaganda).

O que isto tudo tem a ver com o McDonald’s? Simples. A informação turística é um bem público. Supostamente, o governo poderia criar uma secretaria de turismo (esqueçam a ironia da coisa…ou melhor, dêem uma boa risada e prossigam) para prover os turistas de informações como esta. Bem, a coisa mais difícil do mundo é achar um guia turístico desta cidade de fácil acesso e na hora que você precisa. Aí entra a campanha da cadeia de fast-food, em busca de lucros com a praça específica de Belo Horizonte. De forma inteligente, percebe-se que homenagear a cidade torna o consumo do sanduíche mais agradável. A experiência de se comer dois pães e carne não se distingue, em princípio, por conta do lugar onde você o compra. Contudo, diferenciar o produto é uma prática mais antiga do que a prostituição (se é que não nasceu com a mesma…).

Portanto, ao vender um sanduíche (bem privado) com uma folha de papel destas, com uma propaganda da cidade, agrega-se à experiência de consumo um certo valor que, imaginam os donos do boteco, aumentará suas vendas. Bem, não estou eu aqui falando bem da propaganda?

Voltando ao hambúrguer…

Pois é. Eu pensei até em voltar hoje para comer um outro hambúrguer deles, mas não sou tão fã assim do consumo diário de McDonald’s. Mas fica aqui o exemplo, a evidência (talvez a milésima, neste blog) de que bens públicos podem ser produzidos de forma eficiente pelo setor privado. Eu diria, neste caso, até mais eficientemente do que o setor público municipal sequer poderiaimaginar alcançar um dia.

Antes de me despedir, eu me pergunto: burocratas, sempre tão invejosos dos sucesso alheio (dentro ou fora de seu mundinho, a repartição), adoram sabotar a concorrência com um papo furado muito bonito de “proteção às crianças, índios, animais domésticos, mulheres, etc”. Papinho bem ruim mesmo. Mas, às vezes, há até uma boa justificativa para tal, embora raramente me pareça ser a regra seguida por eles. Eu me pergunto quando vão proibir a cadeia de fast-food de produzir informações turísticas porque “apenas o fazem pelo lucro”.Como se os burocratas não maximizassem nem mesmo seu orçamento…

Vovô não quer BigMac. E agora, Ricardo?

Claudio Shikida Current Events, Economics , , , , , , ,

Eis aí algo que é verdade aqui ou no Japão. O texto do casal de blogueiros é recheado de elementos que você pode usar para discutir com seus amigos, professores ou, claro, com seu avô. Eu ainda destacaria um ponto específico, além do demográfico: a questão ricardiana. Cito com negrito por minha conta:

If the central point of Abenomics is to boost prices and thus wages and consumption — the old “raise all boats” metaphor — then to a certain extent the plan has succeeded over the last year. Consumers don’t seem to be fixated on cheap goods and services any more, though, to be honest, it’s difficult to tell if this willingness to spend more is a function of anticipation for April’s consumption tax hike.

Pois é. A administração do Primeiro-Ministro Abe sabe que a política fiscal não é um saco sem fundo (até o do Papai Noel não tem buracos, vale lembrar…). Portanto, mesmo com o estímulo fiscal, a antiga promessa de aumentar o imposto sobre o consumo foi aprovada pelo parlamento.

E agora, para algo completamente diferente…ou pelo menos mais técnico.

A aprovação legal nos traz uma redução na incerteza jurídica, já que todos sabem que a lei, em um país desenvolvido (= civilizado) será cumprida sem maiores problemas. Mais ainda, o aumento tem data e foi anunciado. Então estamos diante de um clássico problema de Macroeconomia de se saber qual é o impacto de uma política anunciada em um mundo em que as expectativas racionais opera.

A proposição Barro-Ricardiana de livro-texto nos diz algo bem simples: se eu sei que vou ter que pagar impostos amanhã, eu poupo hoje. Já num mundo não-Ricardiano (ou não-Barro-Ricardiano), o reduzido imposto de hoje, sob a expectativa de aumento do mesmo amanhã, provavelmente me induzirá a consumir mais. Tudo isto, claro, ceteris paribus.

Mas quando se fala do Japão, é bom ter em mente um ponto muito importante que não tem nada a ver com aquela lenda de “cultura oriental”, mas sim com a demografia (o tal bônus demográfico que meus amigos Salvato, Ari e Bernardo explicam aqui, para o caso brasileiro). Os autores do post falam do desejo dos mais velhos em consumir produtos de qualidade maior (embora exagerem na ênfase). Não apenas isto, mas “mais velhos” no Japão significa que estamos falando de pessoas cujo padrão de consumo alimentar é bem distinto do moderno fast-food norte-americano que os jovens tanto parecem gostar.

Barro, na própria discussão de sua proposição, já havia discutido a questão demográfica ao falar do argumento do altruísmo (herança) que justificaria o efeito da equivalência no, digamos, longo prazo. No caso do post dos autores, a demografia não está tanto no longo prazo, mas no curto prazo (acho que se fala “coorte” lá em demografia). Estamos falando de um modelo de overlapping generations destes simples. Ou seja, no mesmo período de tempo convivem duas gerações distintas: a mais velha e a mais nova (estou supondo, por simplicidade, apenas duas gerações). Só que, ao contrário do modelo de livro-texto, estamos dizendo que o padrão de consumo das gerações é distinto: uma prefere consumir mais fast-food e outra prefere alimentos de maior tempo adicionado (é, eu pensei em algo comohousehold production models que o Tyler Cowen, implicitamente, usa aqui).

A pergunta, portanto, neste caso, é a seguinte: em um modelo simples, com dois períodos, o que acontece quando tornamos o bem “consumo” (que é, lembre-se, estudante de graduação, sempre sinônimo de consumo de bens não-duráveis) heterogêneo? Primeiro, à la ciclos reais, temos duas gerações e, adicionalmente, agora, colocamos a heterogeneidade do consumo. Suponha que o restante do modelo funciona tal como antes. Ah sim, é importante fazer o destaque didático-científico: mantenha as expectativas racionais. Afinal, pode ser que algo mude (ou não) no modelo, mesmo que não haja nenhuma mudança no tipo de racionalidade dos agentes (esta é uma observação para os eternos apressados que desejam, loucamente, jogar fora a racionalidade sem antes relaxar outras hipóteses do modelo. Interessados vejamisto).

Será que a equivalência barro-ricardiana se mantém? Poderia ser uma questão de prova, mas fica para o espaço de comentários. Preferencialmente, gostaria de ver citações de papers que trataram do assunto com hipóteses semelhantes.

Consumerism and Christmas

Tibor Machan Current Events, History, Religion , , , , , ,

You all may recall that after 9/11 Osama bin Laden explained his orchestration of the terrorist deed that murdered some 3000 innocent human beings as payback for America’s materialism. (His anti-materialist rant is routine – a good discussion of his views may be found here.)

Yet as the writer of the above piece notes, anti-materialism is a common theme among most religions. Sure, the idea that human life is about preparation for an after-life — a spiritual life superior to the mundane one we can lead here on Earth — is central to religions.

In the West, however, many religions have made peace with the mundane elements of human existence so there tends to be a less avid denunciation of materialism, which is how the idea of being seriously concerned with living prosperously here on Earth is usually designated. After all, the Christian God is both human and divine (in the person of Jesus).

Destruction of life is generally deemed to be a sin for Christians, whereas, as bin Laden has noted, the love of death is central in his version of Islam. As one account has it, “This originated at the Battle of Qadisiyya in the year 636, when the commander of the Muslim forces, Khalid ibn Al-Walid, sent an emissary with a message from Caliph Abu Bakr to the Persian commander, Khosru. The message stated: ‘You [Khosru and his people] should convert to Islam, and then you will be safe, for if you don’t, you should know that I have come to you with an army of men that love death, as you love life’.” This account is widely recited in contemporary Muslim literature.

Yet despite the Western theological tradition’s more friendly attitude toward the mundane, nearly every Christmas leaders of Christian denominations tend to revert to the original, anti-life doctrines by condemning commercialism. The latest Pope followed the previous one by lamenting the “materialist” approach to celebrating Christmas. They referred to “the dead-end streets of consumerism,” according to newspaper reports, chiding people everywhere for what the report calls “being caught up with consumerist pursuits.”

Ironically, the Pope issued his proclamations from St. Peter’s Square at the Vatican. If you have ever visited the Vatican, as I and millions of others have, you would know it to be one of the West’s, if not the world’s, most opulent places. And as to consumerism, the gift shop dominates the entrance to the Vatican, where one is invited to spend great sums of money on various small or sizable trinkets. Commerce flourishes there, believe me, as the Vatican cashes in on the desire of many of the visitors to take away some reminder of their having been to that historically and theologically significant place.

Of course, even apart from the Vatican, the Roman Catholic Church, as well as others within Christianity, often excel in ostentatious display of riches – one need but go to high mass on Christmas Eve to witness this.

And why not? That is how human beings tend to celebrate what they value highly, by honoring the occasion with gift-giving. And gift-giving necessarily involves commerce – most of us aren’t skilled at the crafts that it takes to create the various gifts we wish to bestow upon those we love and cherish. I personally bought airline tickets for some of my family members and a computer for another, in part because I have no airplane in which to fly them where they would like to go and no factory and expertise to make a modern, up-to-date computer. To obtain these gifts, I rely, as do billions of others, on commerce.

So why then would Popes besmirch consumerism and commerce? Beats me. (And remember, also, that “materialism” is ultimately a nonsense term – nothing we purchase is simply material but embodies the creative intelligence – indeed the creative spirit – of many human beings!)

So, I urge all Popes to change their message and to have a more generous understanding of all who make use of commerce in our celebration of Christmas!