Economics

“Cybernetics in the Service of Communism”

Brandon Christensen Economics, History , , , , , ,

In October, 1961, just in time for the opening of the XXII Party Congress, a group of Soviet mathematicians, computer specialists, economists, linguists, and other scientists interested in mathematical model and computer simulation published a collection of papers called “Cybernetics in the Service of Communism”. In that collection they offered a wide variety of applications of computers to various problems in science and in the national economy.

From this video interview of MIT Lecturer (and historian) Vyacheslav Gerovitch conducted by the website Serious Science. The interview is only 15 minutes long.

Another Belated Warm Welcome

Brandon Christensen Current Events, Economics , ,

Readers have been enjoying Rick’s contributions for a while, but I just realized I haven’t formally introduced him yet. So finally:

Rick Weber received his B.S. in economics at San Jose State University and his M.S. in economics at Suffolk University, where he is currently working on his Ph.D. He is fascinated by the beauty of spontaneous order, and constantly astounded by the inexpressible wealth bestowed on him by the division of labor.

I met Rick at an IHS summer seminar waaaaay back in 2009. He was the toast of the town back then, and I’m really stoked that he’s blogging with us here at the consortium. Scroll through his musings. You won’t be disappointed. He also kicks it with the Free Market Institute gang at Texas Tech.

Fractional Reserves in Free Banking

Fred Foldvary Economics, Liberty , ,

by Fred Foldvary

A bank is a firm that accepts funds as deposits. The generic term “bank” includes various institutional types, such as credit unions. The bank is an intermediary between savers and borrowers. The interest paid by borrowers pays the expenses of the bank, and what remains is paid to the depositors.

There are two ways to organize a banking system. The first is with central banks, such as the Federal Reserve (the “Fed”) in the USA. The central bank issues the currency and regulates the private banks. In the USA, the Fed includes regional Federal Reserve Banks, which are the bankers’ banks. The private banks hold accounts with a Federal Reserve Bank; the funds are called “reserves.” The Fed creates money by buying bonds: it pays the seller a check, the seller deposits the check into a bank, the bank presents the check to the Federal Reserve Bank, and the Federal Reserve Bank covers the check by increasing the reserves of that bank, thus creating money out of nothing. The interest income from bonds pays the expenses of the Fed, and the remaining interest is paid back to the US Treasury.

The other method of banking is with free-market banking, or “free banking,” whereby there is no central bank; the private banks issue their own currencies and are not restricted other than by laws that prohibit fraud. The banks would usually use the same unit of account, such as the dollar or euro.

There are two ways to do banking. The first is called “one hundred percent reserves” or “full reserve” banking. In that method, the bank may not loan out the funds that are deposited. One of the challenges of banking is that with checking accounts, also called “demand deposits,” the account holders may withdraw their money at any time. In contrast, loans are typically long term, such as for mortgages or business loans or car loans. So if depositors suddenly want to withdraw much of their funds, the money will not be there. With full-reserve banking, the money is always there, but the bank get no interest payments. The depositors pay a fee to have their money stored at the bank.

The workings of a banking system also depend on the money system. The three basic types of money are 1) commodity money, where a commodity such as gold or silver is used as a general medium of exchange, 2) a fiat money system, in which the currency has no fixed convertibility to any natural commodity, and 3) an artificial-commodity system, where the unit of account is constructed in a way that limits the supply.

With commodity money, banks create money substitutes convertible to the real money at a fixed rate. For example, if gold is the real money, banks issue paper currency convertible into gold, so that, for example, a $20 paper note can be exchanged for a $20 gold coin with $20 worth of gold. All government-created money today is fiat. With fiat money, the real money is paper currency and coins, and bank deposits are money substitutes. The prime example of artificial-commodity money today is the bitcoin, an electronic currency created by computer programs.

The other method of banking is called “fractional reserve banking.” With that method, a bank holds only a small fraction of deposit funds in its reserves. Governments typically impose some minimum of required reserves. The remainder are “excess reserves,” which may be loaned out.

For example, suppose Samantha deposits $100 of currency into her account, and the required reserves are ten percent. The bank keeps $10 in reserve, and loans out the other $90 to Ralph. The loan consists of an account created by the bank. The loan therefore creates $90 in new money, since Samantha still has her $100 in the bank. With the $90 account, the bank again keeps 10%, or $9, and loans out $81. This money creation can continue until all the excess reserves are fully loaned out, in which case the original $100 deposit is multiplied into the creation of $1000.

With all reserves loaned out, if the depositors seek to withdraw their money, the bank will not have sufficient currency. A bank can deal with this liquidity problem in several ways. One is to have most of the funds in time deposits, funds that are held for a fixed period of time, unless the account holder pays a large penalty. Another method is for a bank to be able to borrow funds from other banks or from a central bank. A third way is for the bank to have contracts that state that the bank may not be able to provide withdrawals at times when it has insufficient funds.

Critics of fractional reserve banking claim that the private banks are a private monopoly cartel that inflates the money supply by making loans and obtains interest that robs the economy of money and goes to privileged bank owners.

With fiat money and central banking, there is indeed a potential for inflation, as there is no limit to money creation. The main problem with central banking is that there is no scientific way to know in advance the optimal money supply, and historically, the Fed created destructive deflation in the 1930s, high inflation in the 1970s, and the cheap credit that generated the real estate bubble and the Crash of 2008.

Some critics of central banks want the government to directly issue money. But if the Treasury or Finance department can issue money at will, political influences can induce inflation, and even hyperinflation as happened in Zimbabwe.

However, with free banking and commodity money, these problems do not arise. Banking would not be a monopoly cartel, since new banks, including credit unions can be created. The convertibility of money substitutes into real money prevents inflation, as the quantity of money substitutes is limited by the demand by the public to hold them. Competition among banks limits their profit to normal returns, as the rest of the debt service paid by borrowers goes to interest payments to depositors. Fractional-reserve free banking generates a flexible yet stable money supply. Free banking does not generate inflation, because new deposits into the banking system come from additional real money, such as from gold mining, which is costly to produce.

The failures of central planning in the economy include the failure of central banks to successfully manage the money supply and optimally manipulate interest rates. Free banking worked well where tried, such as in Scotland until 1844, when the Bank of England took over its money system. A pure free market would let the market determine both the money supply and the natural rate of interest. In Scotland, the banks formed an association to lend funds to banks that needed more liquidity. With free banking, the market’s natural rate would avoid the distortions that arise from either cheap credit or a shortage of credit.

The boom-bust cycle will only be eliminated by the prevention of the fiscal and monetary subsidies to real estate. Sustainable economic progress requires both the public collection of land rent and a free market in money and banking.

Note: this article appeared as “Fractional Reserve Banking” in the Progress Report.

African development and mismeasuring economies (two separate topics)

Brandon Christensen Economics, Links , ,

Sorry I’ve been away for so long. I’ve been much busier than I wanted to be. I’ve been reading an essay by an economic anthropologist (Keith Hart) on African development that is definitely worth your time, though be sure to grab a cup of coffee first.

I liked this blog post from economist Ed Dolan on GDP versus GDP per capita measurements (I myself like to use the GDP (PPP) per capita measurement).

Addendum: Be sure to read Warren’s blog post on informal economies in the post-colonial world before reading the economic anthropologist’s essay. Warren’s post is a great primer for the topic.

New issue of Econ Journal Watch is out

Brandon Christensen Current Events, Economics, Links , ,

You can find it here, and here is the summary:

One Swallow Doesn’t Make a Summer: In a 2014 AER article, Zacharias Maniadis, Fabio Tufano, and John List grapple with the problem of the credibility of empirical results by presenting a framework for statistical inference. Here Mitesh Kataria discusses some of the assumptions and restrictions of their framework and simulation, suggesting that their results do not, in fact, allow for general recommendations about which inference approach is most appropriate. Maniadis, Tufano, and List reply to Kataria.

Should the modernization hypothesis survive the research of Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson, James Robinson, and Pierre Yared? New evidence and analysis is provided by Hugo Faria, Hugo Montesinos-Yufa, and Daniel Morales, supporting the hypothesis that there is a long-run positive relation between socio-economic development and political democracy.

Ill-Conceived, Even If Competently Administered: In a 2013 JEP article, Stuart Graham and Saurabh Vishnubhakat argue that the Patent and Trademark Office (PTO) is doing a good job of interpreting patent law, and suggest that the “smart phone wars” and related disputes are not evidence that the patent system is broken. Here Shawn Miller and Alexander Tabarrok argue that the main problem is not with the PTO but with patent law as it has been applied, particularly to software, resulting in patents that are overly broad and ambiguous, and hence vexing and stifling.

Ragnar Frisch and Norway: Arild Sæther and Ib Eriksen contend that for several decades bad policy derived in part from the climate of opinion among the country’s eminent economists.

The ideological evolution of Milton Friedman: Lanny Ebenstein explores developments in Friedman’s thinking, particularly after the mid-1950s.

EJW Audio: Lanny Ebenstein on Milton Friedman’s Ideological Evolution

I might add that notewriter Fred Foldvary is an Editor for the journal, and notewriter Warren Gibson is its math reader, so give the newest issue some family love!

Kant och kapitalismen

Jesper Ahlin Economics, Philosophy

Immanuel Kant (1724–1804) är en av de mest framstående filosoferna genom tiderna. Han skrev bland annat inom etiken och kunskapsteorin, men också inom den politiska filosofin. Jag tänker här inte redogöra fullständigt för hans tankar utan endast snudda vid några av de huvudsakliga dragen.

Anledningen till att jag skriver om Kant är att jag den senaste veckan har mötts av tre av varandra oberoende misstolkningar, ja, rena missbruk, av Kants filosofi. Man har mot bakgrund av ett av hans mest kända påståenden hävdat att Kant var antikapitalist. Så var inte fallet. I sin bok Groundwork of the Metaphysics of Morals skriver Kant såhär:

“All handel, alla hantverk och alla skickligheter har gynnats av arbetsfördelningen, alltså då en person inte gör allt utan att varje person begränsar sig till en specifik uppgift som skiljer sig markant från andra i sättet det utförs, så att hen erhåller förmågan att utföra det så perfekt som möjligt och med största lätthet. Där arbete inte är så avgränsat och fördelat, där alla är sin egen allt-i-allo, förblir handeln barbarisk.”

(Stycket är fritt översatt från engelska, avsnitt 4:388, Groundwork.)

Kant var samtida med moralfilosofen och ekonomiteoretikern Adam Smith, som bland annat är känd för sin redogörelse av arbetsfördelningen som Kant skriver om. Som stycket visar, tillsammans med Kants vurm för frihet (se nedan), påstod Kant att andra system än det som vi idag kallar för marknadsekonomi är barbariskt (”greatest barbarism”). Den som påstår att Kants filosofi är antikapitalistisk måste förklara sin ståndpunkt väldigt väl.

Antikapitalistiska tolkningar av Kant bygger ofta på det välkända ”agera så att du använder mänskligheten (inklusive dig själv) som ett mål i sig, och aldrig endast som ett medel” (förkortat och omformulerat från avsnitt 4:429). Den antikapitalistiska tolkningen brukar då heta att när folk byter varor och tjänster med varandra använder de sina medmänniskor som medel för sina egna ändamåls skull, vilket ska strida mot Kants filosofi. Vad denna tolkning förbiser är att i en marknadsekonomi använder båda parter frivilligt varandra för att tillsammans uppnå ett tillstånd som de båda anser är bättre än det föregående. Ett brott mot moralen uppstår endast om denna ömsesidiga överenskommelse förvandlas till exploatering genom att den ena parten tvingar den andre till ett byte.

I det efterföljande avsnittet skriver Kant att principen enklast förstås om man föreställer sig ett ”angrepp på andras frihet eller egendom” (”freedom and property of others”, 4:430). Det ska alltså bli tydligt och lätt att förstå, menar Kant, att det moraliska ligger i fullständig ömsesidig respekt om man tänker sig kapitalismens två grundpelare – frihet och privat egendom. När någon bryter mot dessa ska man omedelbart se att handlingen är omoralisk.

Det finns goda skäl att kalla Kant för kapitalist. Han skrev ju också om institutionen att låna och låna ut saker till varandra. Om man inte lämnar tillbaka det man är skyldig faller tilliten sönder. Kant förespråkade alltså kapitalismens motor – arbetsfördelningen; dess två grundpelare – frihet och privat egendom; och dess klister – tillit och ömsesidig respekt. Vill man göra ett case av Kant som antikapitalist får man bita hårt i böckerna. Det mesta tycks tala åt motsatsen: laissez faire, laissez faire.

Rick Weighs on Intellectual Property: More Questions Than Answers

Rick Weber Economics , , ,

Adam recently posted that the British government is contemplating pretty outrageous penalties for Internet pirates. Naturally I wanted to chime in with an outrageously long comment about the nature of property and the (im)possibility of intellectual property (IP) rights. That’s just the libertarian thing to do! There’s a lot to say and it will take more than a few beers to sort this whole thing out, so I’m going to limit myself which means I’ll just raise more questions than I answer…

So let’s start with why IP doesn’t make a lot of sense. IP is information and information wants to be free. My use of a song doesn’t prevent you from using it. IP isn’t scarce in the way a car is. Besides, there’s some evidence that government enforcement of IP does more harm than good. And pirates end up spending more to buy IP than other people anyways (I usually listen to music for free on Grooveshark, but the other day I thought, “I’d really like to tell Willie Nelson that I think his music is great,” so I bought an album even though I could have listened to it for free!). And besides, musicians can make money by performing live.

But just because it isn’t a tangible thing, doesn’t mean we are forbidden from attaching rights to it, even in anarchy. Property rights are a “bundle of sticks.” I own my land, but you might have a right to the sunshine I would block if I built a skyscraper. Likewise, a society can come to some sort of quasi-unanimous agreement that the creator of a song has the right to control its use, even in the form of digital files.

Now, government enforcement of IP laws is fraught with difficulties even before we get to public choice issues. Should a patent be 20 years or 19.5? If the optimal patent length is 16 years, then the current system is a net subsidy and so creates economic inefficiency. But determining the optimal length in a world of benevolent political actors is an incredibly complex problem. How stringently should patents be enforced? How do we account for the differences in conditions that affect different patents (or copyrights, etc.)? This argument doesn’t say “don’t do IP,” it just says, “hey, this whole venture has its own set of costs we need to account for. It’s conceivable that we conclude that the optimal patent is probably between 5 and 20 years, but if we’re off by more than 4 years the costs of the error will outweigh the net benefits of the patent.

Then there’s the public choice problems. We don’t want IP law to be some Mickey Mouse operation set up to hurt consumers.

But (and that’s a big but!) we have to return to this issue of property rights. When I buy an apple, I’m concerned with the physical thing, but really I’m buying a bundle of rights. The rights are what’s being exchanged, and then later exercised. These rights are socially determined and often-but-not-always-or-even-mostly enforced by government. Yes, if I steal your car the government will probably get involved. Yes, the government provides a back-stop to rights enforcement in a lot of areas. But rights are ultimately a social-political construct that can exist in anarchy. What does this mean? First, it means that we could conceivably have intellectual property rights . Second, it means that we could have such rights in a state of anarchy.

Obviously the nature of the good will affect the viability of such a system. Enforcing IP laws is difficult enough when some third-party can come in and say “you’re a pirate and you’re going to jail.” In a common law situation where you have to make the plaintiff whole, it’s difficult to say what that means. Reputation plus property rights might keep comics from stealing others’ material, but it might just separate the comedy industry into auteurs with sophisticated audiences and Carlos Mencia with less sophisticated audiences.

We can safely label a law or institution as legitimate if it is unanimously accepted. In the case of IP, such unanimity seems unlikely. In any case, I still suspect that government involvement in IP does net harm although I’ll grant that it’s a (probably impossible to answer) empirical question.

Trade and cruelty

Rick Weber Economics, Liberty

Time for me to geek out on basic economics again. I’ve been on a Top Gear kick and I’m currently watching the North Pole special. Richard is taking a sled dog team to the north pole and Jeremy and James are racing him in a truck (in order to be the first people to drive a car to the North Pole).Their big advantage is that they can drive as hard as they want, whereas Richard is limited by how hard the dogs can go. Hypothetically he could push them harder and get their faster, but to do so would be cruel. This got me thinking.

The car is what economists call capital, whereas the dogs are labor. Strictly speaking the dogs are capital as well, but due to our enlightened modern ethical precepts we’re morally concerned with their welfare. Remember Planet of the Apes? Those damn, dirty apes had been thought of like chattel slaves, and the folly of that was shown by their taking over the earth. Legally, if your sled dogs won’t run, you can get rid of them. Putting them down might be considered cruelty to animals and thus illegal (I’m not sure), but it would certainly be considered immoral by many westerners. If we think about a labor-capital continuum, dogs are closer to the labor side than cattle, and a car is all the way over at capital.

So capital has a different moral standing than labor (or “quasi-labor” like dogs), but does that mean there’s no possibility of cruelty?Running the truck into the side of a glacier won’t make an engineer cry, but it would create work for a mechanic and wrecker operator (assuming they decide to recover it). “But wait,” you say, “jobs are awesome! JOBS!”

But I put it to you: jobs aren’t good. If they don’t pay the mechanic, then they’re making him (or her) suffer. To make someone work is to be cruel. But in the real world nobody makes mechanics do their work, people induce them to do that work by making it worth their time. Mutually advantageous trade is beautiful and kind. (Okay, that’s only certain with euvoluntary exchange).

Oh! And an I, Pencil moment: The truck made it to the north pole, allowing two middle aged, out of shape men, to make a journey that otherwise probably would have killed them. Through gains from trade, and capital that both represented and applied embedded knowledge, in order to reach a destination that has been visited by no more than a few dozen humans.

UK considering long prison terms for file sharers

Adam Magoon Current Events, Economics, Liberty, Philosophy

https://torrentfreak.com/uk-considers-throwing-persistent-internet-pirates-in-jail-140123/

Up to ten years in fact.  While there is debate in the libertarian community over intellectual property laws I think that I would be hard pressed to find many libertarians that think downloading a movie should put an “offender” in prison for a similar amount of time as stealing a car. 
 

Oxfam: Combined wealth of the 85 richest people is equal to that of the poorest 3.5 billion – half the world’s population

Rick Weber Economics , , ,

I’ll bet the 85 richest people in the world have been beneficiaries of a good deal of rent seeking, but I still think there’s a positive spin to stories like this.

Let’s say (for the sake of not working too hard to write this post) that when we adjust for theft and its dead weight costs, the net productive wealth of group A (the wealthy) is just 25% the total wealth, that’s a mean productive wealth of 10.3 million times the average member of group B. For a humanitarian, this means that their fight to improve the plight of the world’s poor, has the potential to pick up trillion dollar bills off the sidewalk. This isn’t just little embossed portraits of old dead white men, it’s genuine human flourishing! Of course this message would be more meaningful if the numbers were something like “combined wealth of the poorest 3.5 billion is equal to the combined wealth of the poorest X million residents of OECD countries.”

That made up percentage, if it’s even remotely accurate, is a similar call to arms for those of us opposing politically supported privilege. And it just so happens that the humanitarian and libertarian causes overlap nicely! There is institutionalized theft and there is poverty, and that’s bad news. But the problems have been recognized and solutions are being fought for.

Myths about Libertarianism

Fred Foldvary Current Events, Economics , , , , , , ,

Many articles have recently appeared in magazines, web sites, and social media criticizing free markets and libertarian ideas. It seems to me that this opposition is a result of a growing interest in freedom as people realize that the economies of the world are in serious trouble. As people see continuing high unemployment, slow growth, ever greater government debt, environmental disaster, more turbulent weather, and endless wars, some folks seek solutions in greater freedom while others seek solutions in greater state control. The critics of libertarianism and economic freedom have fallen for several fallacies.

1. Critics confuse today’s mixed economies, a mixture of markets and government intervention, with a “free market.” A truly free market is an economy in which all activity is voluntary for all persons. Government intervention changes what people would otherwise voluntarily do. A pure market would not impose the taxation of labor and capital. It would not prohibit trade with Cuba. Free markets would not subsidize industry. Any peaceful and honest action would be free of restrictions and taxes. That is not the economy we have today in any country.

2. Critics use the term “capitalism” to falsely blame markets for economic trouble. Those opposed to private enterprise call today’s economies “capitalist.” They then note that the economy has trouble such as poverty, great inequality, unemployment, and recessions. The critics conclude that “capitalism” causes these problems. This illogic uses a sly change in meaning. They use the term “capitalism” as a label for the current economies and also to refer to free markets. It makes no sense to label the economy as XYZ and then say XYZ causes problems. The critics use the double meaning of “capitalism” to blame the non-existing free market for social problems. This confusion is often deliberate, as I have found that it is almost impossible to get the critics to replace their confusing use of the term “capitalism” with clearer terms such as either the “mixed economy” or the “pure market.”

3. Critics think that the “market” means “anything goes.” For example, they think that a free market allows unlimited pollution. They often call this, “unbridled capitalism.” But freedom stops at the limit of harm. In a pure market with property rights for all resources, pollution that crosses outside one’s own property is trespass and invasion. This violation of others’ property rights would require compensation, and that payment would limit pollution.

4. Critics confuse privatization with contracting out. They then blame private enterprise for problems such as occurs with private prisons. When government contracts with private firms to produce roads, it is still a governmental road. When governments hire private contractors to provide services in a war, it is still government’s war. Government sets the rules when firms do work under contract. Genuine privatization means transferring the whole ownership, financing, and operation to a private firm.

5. Critics overlook subsidies. Government distorts the economy with subsidies to agriculture, energy production, and other corporate welfare. The biggest subsidy is implicit: the greater land rent and land value generated by the public goods provided by government and financed mostly from taxes on labor and enterprise. Critics not only ignore this implicit subsidy but also overlook the explicit subsidies to agriculture and programs such as the promotion of ethanol from corn.

6. Critics do not understand the crowding out of private services because of government programs. The critics of libertarianism say that with less government, old folks and poor folks would starve and die because they would not receive social security and medical care. What they overlook is that the reason many of the elderly have little savings for retirement is that government took away half their income while they were working. Income taxes reduce their net wages, while sales taxes raise the cost of living. Low-income people pay little or no income tax, but they pay hefty sales and excise taxes, and they indirectly pay property taxes from their rental payments to landlords. Libertarians want to abolish poverty and have a society where all people have good medical care. They just want to accomplish this by letting workers keep their full pay, which would enable them to pay for their own medical services. Also, with no taxes on interest and dividend income, people would be better able to provide for their own retirement income, indeed to have much more than social security now provides.

7. Critics fail to understand contractual governance. A pure market would not consist of isolated individuals. Human beings have always lived in community associations. In a free market, communities such as condominiums, land trusts, and civic associations would provide the public goods that the members want.

8. The critics of market believe that corporations control the economy, exploit labor, and plunder the planet. Corporations do have power, but mainly because they obtain subsidies and monopoly privileges from governments. But labor unions and lawyers also lobby the government for power and favors. Rather than blaming private enterprise, the critics should examine how the structure of government enables special interest to obtain power and wealth.

Leo Tolstoy wrote in 1905 that nobody really argues with the economics and philosophy of Henry George and public revenue from land rent; the critics either misunderstand the concepts, or they create misinformation. The same applies to critics of libertarianism. The fact that the critics falsify the free market in criticizing it implies that the actual concept is sound, otherwise they would provide valid arguments.

Nobody has refuted the free market and the libertarian ethic of “live and let live”. The critics of liberty either misunderstand it or else falsify it. Even when their errors in logic, their false evidence, and their confused terminology are pointed out, the critics persist in their falsification. They are stubbornly anchored to their viewpoints. Why this is so is a problem I will leave to psychologists to figure out.

Seven Ways Libertarians Sometimes Run Off the Rails

Warren Gibson Economics, Liberty, Politics , , , , , , , , , , , ,

I’m a dedicated libertarian but my first allegiance is to accuracy.  It pains me when I see libertarians making arguments that are inaccurate, irrelevant, or just plain wrong.  When they do so, they do themselves and our movement a big dis-service.  I list seven such arguments here.  More could be added.

  1. The Fed is privately owned. This is true only superficially. Member banks own shares of stock in one of twelve district Federal Reserve Banks and they receive dividends on those shares. But they have little in the way of genuine ownership privileges. They cannot sell their stock and their voting rights are very limited. The President of the United States appoints the Board of Governors. Just because a legal arrangement is given labels that suggest private ownership, that doesn’t make it so.

  2. The Bureau of Labor Statistics disguises the true unemployment situation by excluding workers who are “discouraged,” i.e., not seeking jobs. This is true of the U-3 unemployment figure which is the most widely cited figure, and the one the Fed says it is targeting. That figure is currently about 6.5%. The BLS also publishes its U-6 figure, which includes discouraged workers and currently stands at around 13%, down from about 17% at the height of the Great Recession. The BLS is not covering up anything here, although politicians may certainly choose to emphasize one figure or the other depending on what ax they’re grinding. Which is the “true” unemployment rate? There’s no such thing. The figures are what they are and observers can make of them what they will.

  3. “Chain-weighted” versions of the Consumer Price Index are politically motivated.  These adjustments are intended to recognize the substitution effect, the classic example of which is when the price of beef rises and the price of chicken doesn’t, people eat less beef and more chicken. Peoples’ cost of living rises less than it otherwise would. CPI increases as measured by a chain-weighted formula reflect this fact, and the resulting price inflation estimates come out lower than under the old approach. That flashes a green light to some conspiracy theorists. While these adjustments are tricky business, substitution effects are real and the attempt to compensate for them should not be impugned.

  4. The Consumer Price Index is politically manipulated by excluding food and energy. There are many versions of the CPI. One of them excludes food and energy because those prices are usually very volatile. That figure may be useful to economists who want to filter out volatile effects and focus on secular trends. Again, the figures are what they are, and politicians or for that matter we bloggers can use or misuse them as we wish.

  5. “Banksters” control the U.S. government. There is a grain of truth in this one. The big banks are both victims and beneficiaries of government dominance of banking and finance. The reality of government regulation is that regulated firms employ many very smart and very well paid individuals who are constantly finding ways to manipulate or sidestep the regulations to which they are subject. The fact is that the regulators and the regulated are very thick. Banking and finance are controlled by a cabal of government and Wall Street firms and individuals. It’s a mistake to say that either group totally dominates the other.

  6. Global warming is a myth and a scam. Ron Paul, whom I admire very much, blotted his copy book when he said on Fox News, “The greatest hoax I think that has been around for many, many years if not hundreds of years has been this hoax on […] global warming.” A few basic facts are beyond dispute: (a) carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas, (b) CO2 levels are at an all time high, and (c) human activity is the primary cause of the increase. Beyond that, the evidence starts to get sketchy and incomplete. We do seem to have melting polar ice caps, record high temperatures in some places, droughts, etc. But overall there has been almost no temperature increase during the last ten years or so.  Projections of rising temperatures and rising sea levels appear to be too pessimistic. This is a very complex issue and one where biases can overwhelm us if we aren’t careful. Statists are prone to accept the global warming thesis because they see it as a way to increase state power. Libertarians want the issue to go away for the same reason. This would be a great time for all parties to step back an exercise some epistemic humility. There’s a great deal about this issue that we just don’t know.

  7. Let’s get rid of the state entirely, and all will be well. Given the present primitive degree of evolution of our species, a new state will pop up wherever an existing one is overthrown. The key to peace and prosperity is not anything so simple as abolition of the state, but to convince enough people, thoroughly enough, of the advantages of long-term cooperation. Good institutions will follow.

What is entrepreneurship and why should you care?

Rick Weber Economics , , , , , , , ,

The word entrepreneurship is thrown around a lot, but rarely defined. As far as I can tell nobody really believes (or is willing to admit they believe) that entrepreneurship is anything less than highly important (“Green child entrepreneurs are our future! Support our troops against breast cancer!”). It’s probably a wise political move to not pin down the idea because it means anyone’s cronies can be considered entrepreneurs. Speaking of which, “crony” is almost the antonym of entrepreneur. Cronyism evokes images of stagnation, inefficiency, “innovations” that make things worse, and opportunities for genuine improvement that are ignored.

Invisible hand

So what does entrepreneurship mean? There are two general definitions, and both bear on the question of how to go about having a peaceful, productive, and morally praiseworthy society. The more general of the two is judgment in the face of uncertainty. That is, given that we don’t know what tomorrow will look like, and we certainly don’t know what the world will look like in 10, 25, or 50 years, we have to make wise, forward-looking decisions. We don’t have enough information to simply plug the relevant data into an Excel spreadsheet and get the “correct” action from a formula. In other words, understanding the ubiquity of entrepreneurship means that we still consider The Use of Knowledge in Society to be relevant.

The more specific definition is pursuit of pure economic profit (above “normal returns to capital, labor, etc.”) by pursuing hitherto un- or under-exploited opportunities. Such breaks from the status quo are the creative acts necessary for economic progress. Entrepreneurship is the human face of economic change that provides a micro-level description of what economists might otherwise wave their hands over and call “technology.” This sort of entrepreneurship is an important source of uncertainty about the future. 2014 is so much different from 1964 because of the actions of innovative entrepreneurs out to improve their own lives.

You’ll notice that I haven’t defined entrepreneurship in a way that actually is inimical to cronyism. That’s because not all entrepreneurship is productive. Destructive entrepreneurship is the pursuit of economic profit that makes the entrepreneur better off at the expense of someone else resulting in a net-loss. So we should be concerned not only with allowing individuals the autonomy necessary to be entrepreneurial (rather than merely reacting formulaically to top-down commands), but also with establishing institutions that direct people to help others.

Invisible hand

Elephant Poaching: National Tragedy or Tragedy of the Commons?

Adam Magoon Current Events, Economics , , , , , ,

Elephant Poaching: National Tragedy or Tragedy of the Commons?

Tanzania recently ended a policy of summary execution of elephant poachers predictably due to “a litany of arbitrary murder, rape, torture and extortion of innocent people.”  The prime minister gave a PR response that, for me at least, sums up most government policy saying “The anti-poaching operation had good intentions, but the reported murders, rapes and brutality are totally unacceptable.”

World governments have taken the same measures they always do when individuals consume something that they arbitrarily deem distasteful and simply banned the sale of ivory; a method which has been categorically proved to simply not work.  After all, how easy is it to buy narcotics in America?  Or alcohol in the Middle East?  Or other drugs…in prisons.     

So what is my solution?

As with other commons violations such as over-fishing the answer to the dwindling elephant population is simple.  Privatize it.  Privatize what? You ask.  The elephants of course!  Ivory is a hot commodity in the third world, used for obvious things such as jewelry and decoration and not-so-obvious things like aphrodisiacs and snake-oil like medicines and this demand is not going away any time soon.

Allow promising entrepreneurs to tag, herd, breed, and protect groups of elephants for the purpose of harvesting their ivory, meat, hides, and any other parts of value for later sale throughout Asia and the world.  By doing this you would ensure the existence of these animals for as long as there continues to be demand for them.

The success of Kalashnikov? Still elusive

Brandon Christensen Economics, History , , , , , , ,

Before the New Year I asked why the recently-deceased inventor of the AK-47 was able to become so successful. There were a couple of good responses from Paul and Roman, but Jonathan Finegold’s response is worth highlighting:

Whatever I once knew about the process of military procurement in the Soviet Union, I’ve mostly now forgotten. But, the AK-47 is just one out of many Soviet military inventions that have become mainstays of global militaries: T-54 and T-72 tanks, MiG-29, et cetera. The USSR was generally head-to-head with the United States in military technology, although arguably the U.S. started to pull away during the late 1980s. This legacy of military technology follows back to the Second World War, and even before. It was the Soviets, under the leadership of Mikhail Tukhachevsky, who developed what is commonly known as “blitzkrieg” (typically associated with the Germans, who trained with the Soviets during the late 1920s and early 1930s). Their T-34 has become one of the emblem tanks of WWII.

But, rather than a success of the Soviet system, this should be interpreted as a failure. The criticism of socialism is not that it cannot achieve certain ends, or even that it cannot achieve these ends with success, in some sense of the word. The critique of socialism is that they cannot economize on the resources used towards achieving these ends, and that these ends are not representative of the general welfare of society. In other words, the capitalist system is the achievement of a plurality of ends; socialism is the opposite. The USSR put military success, especially in terms of “out-showing” their American rivals, over other ends, especially those of their people. Thus, despite the poverty of Soviet society, the USSR accomplished great military and scientific achievements. (This is why comments like “socialism works, because we were able to mobilize resources towards the war effort and mass produce more military equipment than any other country” is not a good response to the critique of socialism — it fails to grasp what the critique of socialism actually is.)

Contrast this with the United States, which achieved both great military and scientific achievements and improvements to the general welfare of society.

This helps to clarify a number of important concepts (including why socialism failed), but I’m still puzzled as to why Moscow allowed one of its products to be nicknamed after an individual at the height of the Cold War.