The Iranian Nuclear Deal: An Agreement for All

[Editor’s note: the following is a short essay by Payam Ghorbanian. Payam was born in Tehran, Iran. He got his bachelor of science in Engineering from Zanjan University in Zanjan, Iran. He has been participating in liberal political activities and he was involved with some think tanks in Iran. He is doing research in the field of international relations and Iran’s foreign policy as an independent activist. He is now living in San Jose, California.

I cannot endorse this essay, but I am excited to post it because of its potential as a conduit for intercultural dialogue and exchange. I have left his essay largely intact, but did break up some of his longer paragraphs for clarity’s sake. Thanks to Payam for taking the time to write this.]

On November 24, Iran and the P5+1 group have reached to a historical deal on Tehran’s nuclear program at talks in Geneva, Switzerland. We might have difficulty to understand this process, the process which turns out the agreement to be real, so we must particularly take a look around to the real position of this group of countries plus Iran. It’s one of the Iranian’s attitude and way of thinking to say what they wanted to get and what they really ended up to.

In Iran, Hassan Rouhani was elected as a president on Jun 15, 2013. He is also known as one of the three people who talked to McFarlane in the Iran-Contra affair in 1985 about buying weapons during war between Iran & Iraq. During campaign for presidency, he said an extremely hopeful statement about nuclear program. He said: “It is good for nuclear centrifuges to operate, but it is also important that the country operates as well and the wheels of industry are turning.”

After he got elected, he put his faith in the right person and chose Mr. Mohammad Javad Zarif to be the minister of foreign affairs with the complete authority in action. Mr. Zarif was the permanent representative of Iran to the United Nations from 2002 to 2007. He is really familiar with the international policy regulations and the United States’ policy. Therefore, he was chosen to precede Iran’s nuclear negotiations and it was decided that the entire process would be carried out solely within his team.

It was one of the toughest situations for Iranian policy even though the middle class, especially the people who are living in the large cities, are incredibly united and hopeful for solving this nuclear issue; however, the extremists criticized any approach to any kind of agreement. For several years people of Iran have been feeling how sanctions can really cripple their destiny, economy, and their society structure. As a result of these effects, the rates of unemployment, bankruptcy, addiction, divorce, and prostitution have increased without any official and governmental justification. Therefore, we can consider the November 24th, 2013 as a distinguished and remarkable day in Iran’s modern history.

With the above introduction, let’s go through the text of the agreement for some details. It has been said:

“ … from the existing uranium enriched to 20%, retain half as working stock of 20% oxide for fabrication of fuel for the TRR. Dilute the remaining 20% UF6 to no more than 5%. No reconversion line…Iran announces that it will not enrich uranium over 5% for the duration of the 6 months.”

Although Mr. Zarif announced that according to the agreement, enriching uranium under the 5% is now acceptable and claimed it as a big win for Iran, the majority of the people in Iran really do not care about this subject. They expect the removal of all sanctions and this was the reason that they were following the negotiations and they remained awake up until the agreement came out, which at that time was really late at local time in Iran.

After all these trials and tribulations, now you can find out how hope for the future can make our nation more united. The people clearly understand that it is not the end of the negotiations and it is just the start of long way and they are looking forward to the next 6 month. For the people, it is not just about nuclear program; it is more about their life and their children’s future. President Rouhani is now in the right place and with the supports of Iranians. We hope his social policy would be more flexible as well and we can see more freedom in the society.

We are not going to discuss here the Europe United’s policy during this long term negotiation with Iran. They always want to reserve the important positions for themselves; however, they usually get to every negotiation which others have already accepted. For the people of Iran, the Europeans are best known as those trying to prolong every issue.

On the other hand The Europeans always push the solution to the curb and then try to get back to the first step and ultimately get to the agreement and to take one step further. With flopping back and forth, the conclusion usually would never come out. People of Iran had been disappointed of this kind of policy. From Iranian’s point of view, France should be responsible for the last unsuccessful talks on November 9th. Unfortunately they are unreliable partner for this region.

After all these, it is now time to shift our focus to the president Obama’s foreign policy about Middle East during the last year. Not that far ago, Syria used chemical weapons and crossed the red line, which was mentioned by president Obama before. Moreover, United Nation confirmed that there was no doubt of such use of chemical weapon from Syrians regime. However, instead of taking military action, president Obama decided to follow Russians in this crisis and he still tries to solve this issue through the UN. As a fact, it is clear that in order to go through the UN path to solve this crisis, United States has to deal with Russians and Chinese, since they have the authority to block international actions through the Security Council.

It is a fact that the Syrian’s people have been killed during the last three years. However, it seems that this fact is going to be ignored and denied. On the other side, Obama’s policy in this case would let the conservative countries like Qatar or Saudi Arabia to take part in this eternal disaster.  They can easily get rid of their extremist religious groups by allowing them to attend in this catastrophic war in Syria. Also due to the fact of this important unsolved problem in Syria, the pressure of human rights activities and other internal problems in their countries would be neglected. With this aspect of Syria’s crisis and also the failing of Arab spring, having an agreement with Iran is essential for Obama’s policy to get through these consecutive unsuccessful affairs. However, Israel’s prime minister tries to call this agreement as a historical mistake.

Great Britain has recently announced that they are concerned about total failure in Iran because of sanctions. After Great Britain evacuated all embassy staff from Iran in November 2011, now it seems that they are going to open relations with Iran following the election of President Rouhani. Undoubtedly they know the Middle East region much better than anyone else. They know this failure can affect Afghanistan, Iraq and the entire Middle East region. As a result, Britain has consecutively tried to help Iran and U.S. to approach to the final steps of negotiations.

On the other side, China is known as fatal mistake in economic partnership for Iranians during the last 10 years. Chinese took advantage of unjust situation of Iran and also destroyed industries in Iran are caused by importing cheap Chinese products. They have initially accepted the UN sanctions and have blocked about 50 billion dollars of Iran’s money in their banks; however, they ultimately should be happy of this agreement which definitely will moderate oil price and open up the gate of Iran’s market for Chinese investments.

Clearly with their foreign policy being so close to Iran, it is just a pose for Chinese in order to help them to precede their policy in southeast Asia using Iran’s threat for pushing away Chinese threat. Couple weeks ago they extended “air defense identification zones” which it seems will be accepted by United States. There is a common trend for all nations which can be written in this way that you are not going to consider as a powerful country if you just want to please yourself.

Finally, Russia should be indeed considered as the biggest winner of this agreement as well as the Middle East situation. Moreover, with the intent of being leader of the entire world, they forced other countries to accept their decisions on Syria’s crisis and by having this virtual confidence, now they really have plans to ruin all aspects of the free world. On September 12th, President Putin decisively took an issue with president Obama. His article was about United States people and he mentioned: “It is extremely dangerous to encourage people to see themselves as exceptional.”

However, president Obama decided to ignore this article and show respect to the new Russia. I believe working with Russia about Syria’s crisis and choosing non-interventionism for Ukraine crises would be one of the Obama’s failures in the U.S. foreign policy. Now this agreement would help Russia and obviously president Putin to take the rein of power more and more. At the end if Russia and China find out that there are not any obstacles around, they will never ever conceal their ambitious points.

Pesos, medidas e as instituições

Douglas Allen, em seu ótimo, The Institutional Revolution, defende a tese de que uma revolução institucional teria precedido a famosa revolução industrial. Texto importante, é que, para mim, já é candidato a livro-texto básico de qualquer bom curso de História Econômica.

Como sempre, senti falta de alguma coisa mais, digamos, tropical, no livro. Bom, mas como é que vou cobrar isto de um livro que não se propõe a contar a história das instituições em Portugal? Não posso. Isto é mais uma deixa para os pesquisadores brasileiros. Dica de amigo, quem sabe, para alguém que deseje fazer uma dissertação de mestrado sobre o tema.

Mas eu sou uma pessoa perigosamente curiosa. Fiquei intrigado com a questão dos pesos e medidas. No argumento do autor, a questão dos pesos e medidas, ou melhor, a questão da padronização de pesos e medidas, está diretamente relacionada com a mensuração de produtos, o que gera uma importante alteração nos custos de se trocar mercadorias (ou seja, nos custos de transação). Afinal, nada mais óbvio do que achar mais interessante comprar um quilo de abacate sem levar para casa meio quilo do mesmo.

No caso do Brasil colonial, então, pensei, deveria ser como em Portugal. Para checar isto, consultei este documento. Vejamos alguns trechos:

No que se refere às unidades de medidas adotadas ao longo do período colonial, o quadro não difere, como é natural, daquele oferecido por Portugal. A vara, a canada e o almude constituíam as medidas de uso mais comum, ainda que seu valor pudesse variar de região para região. Os produtos importados traziam consigo suas próprias medidas e, quanto mais geograficamente restrita uma atividade econômica, mais específico era o sistema de medidas utilizado. (…)

Vale dizer: nada muito diferente do restante da Europa.

Assim, a primeira menção expressa à atividade metrológica, em documentos coloniais, refere-se precisamente à fiscalização do funcionamento de mercados locais. Como em Portugal, o funcionário colonial mais diretamente envolvido com a fiscalização de pesos e medidas era o almotacé, mencionado pelas Ordenações Manuelinas e Filipinas e previsto pela organização do município de São Vicente, em 1532. Em número de dois, eleitos mensalmente pela Câmara Municipal, os almotacés tinham como atribuição básica manter o bom funcionamento dos mercados e do abastecimento de gêneros, além de fiscalizar obras e manter a limpeza da cidade. Como parte de suas responsabilidades, deveriam verificar mensalmente, com o escrivão da almotaçaria, os pesos e as medidas. Tal disposição estimulava, dada a dispersão e a diversidade dos municípios, a multiplicação dos padrões de medidas.

Veja só a importância do ofício. Alguém imaginaria que carregar uma régua ou uma fita métrica, hoje em dia, seria uma profissão digna de tanta importância? Bem, numa época em que o governo descobre que medir ajuda a maximizar sua receita, nada mais natural, não? Até eleição para o cargo havia.

No caso dos gêneros estancados ou submetidos a controles mais rígidos, a Coroa cuidava da melhor organização das atividades metrológicas. O estabelecimento do monopólio do tabaco, por exemplo, levou à criação, em 1702, do Juiz da Balança do Tabaco, nas alfândegas de Salvador e Recife. No caso das minas, o regimento do Intendente do Ouro, de 26 de setembro de 1735, mencionava expressamente sua obrigação de manter as balanças e marcos da Intendência aferidos, pesando o ouro corretamente, sem prejuízo das partes nem da Fazenda Real, atribuição expressamente mantida no regimento de 1751.

Como se percebe, a questão institucional é indissociável da questão econômica. Veja aí o depoimento do próprio autor: tem monopólio? Quem é o “dono” do monopólio? A Coroa. Reza o dito popular – e a teoria econômica – que “o olho do dono engorda o cavalo” – e não é diferente neste caso.

Pois bem, falta-nos – alô, colegas de História Econômica! – um estudo mais detalhado do papel dos almotacés (ou me falta mais pesquisa e leitura, vai saber…), não falta? Vou procurar meu exemplar de Fiscais e Meirinhos para rejuvenescer, digamos assim, meu interesse pelo tema.

Novamente, percebemos que a História Econômica não precisa nos dar sono.

From the Comments: Iran, Nationalism and Satire

Siamak helps to clarify some things about contemporary Iranian culture that have been mischaracterized or misunderstood in the West:

Great article. About Iran part I wanted to leave a comment about two things. Fernanda Lima’s facebook page issue was so insulting and shameful. But it’s not like that Iranians are really blaming her for not having hijab. It was a sarcasm of state-run media. It was like now that we don’t have any hope for state TV to stop censorship you why didn’t you wear a better clothes. State-run TV does show foreign eomen with no hijab in movies, news, etc. But those beautiful breasts…! :-)

You should recognize the Iranian culture to know what I mean. Although it was insulting and shameful but they’re not really blaming her. It was a sarcasm of Iranian media.

The second part goes to the Iranian Nationalism. You’re right. After the Islamic Revolution, Islamic republic was completely against nationalists. That time most of the political groups were Islamic groups or Radical communists and socialists. The only liberwl group were called Nezhat Azadi (Liberty Movement) which were Moderate Liberal Muslim Nationalists. After the revolution Ayatollah Khomeini and the Islamic groups were completrly against nationalism. They were thinking that Islam should be the common thing between all Iranians. After 1998 that president khatami came this was going to change and Nationalism was again advertised by the government. Extreme nationalism in Iran is sourced from these two events: showing disagreement with the Islamic Radicals and the great history of Iran which has made Iranians extremely illusory about themselves.

Me myself think I’m a nationalist. But there’s a bit difference. Nationalism is not a goal for me. It’ just a medium or instrument for me. I completely believe in globalization and Peter Singer’s globalization is one of my favourite books. But I think nationalism is a medium to get closer to modernism. That’s it.

I suspect Siamak’s nationalism is a lot like the American libertarian’s patriotism.

Antes do feminismo existe o indivíduo. E o que ele pensa?

Outro trecho do ótimo Rational Optimist, do Matt Ridley:

When shown a photograph of an attractive man and asked to write a story about an ideal date with him, a woman will say she is prepared to spend time on conspicuous pro-social volunteering. By contrast, a woman shown a photograph of a street scene and asked to write about ideal weather for being there, shows no such sudden urge to philanthropy. (A man in the same ‘mating-primed’ condition will want to spend more on conspicuous luxuries, or on heroic acts.)

Ou seja, a psicologia evolucionária nos mostra que homens ou mulheres (ou qualquer outra coisa no meio destes dois aí) que pense, não o faz conforme a doce visão romântica e engraçada das crônicas publicadas no jornal de domingo. Não, antes disso, existe um belo de um auto-interesse.

Por exemplo, isso significa que aquela mulherada toda na passeata não pensa apenas em termos benevolentes, sob um suposto “altruísmo” (cuja discussão nos mostra ser um conceito para lá de falho e enganoso…).

Claro, continuo recomendando o livro.

The Almost Turk and the Jew

Note to my overseas readers: Recently a bright woman who has her own show on a television network reputed to be conservative stated in a sarcastic manner that Santa Claus is white and so is Jesus. “Live with it,” she added meanly. The liberal media have been in a rage ever since. They don’t quite know how to accuse others of racism toward a person (Santa ) who may not exist. Below is my own poisonous contribution.

I see no reason to compromise in the current culture war (“Kulturkampf“): Santa Claus is obviously white because he comes from pre-Turkish Asia Minor where everyone was white. Santa was almost a Turk, just a little too early, that’s all. Along the way, he got redesigned in Bavaria, white too. Jesus was also white although he looked suspiciously Jewish. I mean by “white” that both would have easily sat in the front of the bus in Alabama in 1950. Now, to be fair, one of the magi (so-called “wise men”) visiting the baby Jesus from Persia may have been black, as in “African.” Go figure!

And no, he was not depicted as a servant as a way to demean people with sub-Saharan African ancestry. Don’t even go there! He was one of the “rois-mages” in French; that means “king.” That’s all there is to it. In fact, I am pretty sure he brought baby Jesus gold as a gift. Not bad!

In my view, if other racial groups want to claim either a Santa or a Jesus, they will have to invent their own. I look forward to an Asian fat man who brings presents, for example. (But what will he ride?) And we could easily use another Savior, perhaps a girl with African features. They are all welcome to borrow both Santa and Jesus in the meantime but they may not (NOT) change their identity by force. (When your neighbor lends you his plate, you are not supposed to paint it over.)

Ah, se tivessem dado ouvidos às evidências científicas…

Lembra de todo “auê” em torno do Fome Zero? Aquele slogan bem breguinha de que quem tem fome quer furar fila, e tal? Pois é. Aí veio a POF de 2003 e descobriu-se que não havia tanto motivo para a choradeira. Muita gente calou a boca e saiu com o rabo entre as pernas, outras apelaram, etc.

Aí você pega um bom livro para ler, como o Heavy!  (HEAVY!: The Surprising Reasons America Is the Land of the Free-And the Home of the Fat, Springer Verlag) do Richard McKenzie, e encontra:

Today, the distribution of the country’s weight problems across income classes has reversed, as excess weight problems are disproportionately concentrated among the poor.

Como está no kindle, não tenho a página. Mas digo uma coisa: as evidências empíricas não são novas. O motivo de não se dar ouvidos às evidências é uma mistura de ignorância intencional (grupos de interesse) e não-intencional. Como sempre, a gente se lembra de como as más idéias também movimentam o mundo.

Evidentemente, não há nada de indigno ou de errado em faturar um hambúrguer de vez em quando. Como nos lembra Matt Ridley, em The Rational Optimist (P.S.):

Fire and cooking in turn then released the brain to grow bigger still by making food more digestible with an even smaller gut – once cooked, starch gelatinises and protein denatures, releasing far more calories for less input of energy. As a result, whereas other primates have guts weighing four times their brains, the human brain weighs more than the human intestine. Cooking enabled hominids to trade gut size for brain size.

Sim, também no Kindle. Bom, Matt Ridley está nos dando uma interessantíssima evidência de que o processo digestivo, hoje glamourizado pela comida barata (obrigado, produtividade elevada! Obrigado, mercados!) e farta que, sim, chega à mesa de muito mais gente do que no passado, pode ter sido uma das causas de nosso progresso.

Parece que teremos muito o que aprender (e comer…moderadamente) até chegarmos a um nível de compreensão mínimo acerca dos efeitos da ingestão de calorias em nossas vidas. Em verdade, em verdade, eu vos digo: nunca chegaremos a uma compreensão completa (Hayek!) e, portanto, muito mais cuidado e humildade deveriam ter nossos “iluminados” reguladores de agências governamentais: eles mesmos não sabem direito o que fazem (tal como nós). Ora, então porque lhes dar tanto poder para decidir sobre nossa dieta? Podemos votar livremente, mas devemos ser limitados no que desejamos de sobremesa? Não, obrigado.

The political Left and violence: An uncomfortable, subconscious symbiosis

I recently set up a Twitter account (you can follow me here; you can follow Notes On Liberty here) and after a couple of days of using its newsfeed I’ve decided to tally up the number of tweets from Leftists that either call for outright violence or allude to violence against their political enemies. Now obviously these guys are joking and I don’t think that any of them actually mean what they say, but the fact that this project even struck me as something to do is flabbergasting.

I think the fact that there are so many allusions to violence – against political enemies – in my newsfeed, combined with the recent labors of the media to rid the Colorado school shooter’s political leanings from the narrative of that particular story, has put me at unease* and made me particularly sensitive to the culture of ‘high’ media.

The allusions to violence harbor an authoritarian tendency that I think often goes unnoticed. I didn’t notice anything until a couple of days ago. Yet they are there, in plain sight. You can find these appeals and allusions to violence on the Right as well, but not from the people and organizations I follow on Twitter.

For example, I don’t follow rednecks or Party activists but rather professors, journalists, wonks and publication outlets that I think provide great, in-depth insights into the world around me. Most of these individuals and organizations are Left-leaning, and I have yet to ever (ever) see an appeal to violence coming from an intellectual conservative or libertarian organization. I see it from the intellectual Left so often that I am now going to start tallying such outbursts.

This is worrisome for a bunch of reasons, but three stand out to me:

  1. Joking about violence is not very funny; Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert don’t do it, and now we know why
  2. The hypocrisy coupled with the veiled and not-so-veiled threats against political enemies is nothing short of barbarism
  3. It convincingly shows just how shallow Leftist thought has become; resorting to violence in an argument is, as we all know, a sign of defeat

Added together, these three major reasons make a solid foundation for a fascistic political movement. Look at my most recent ‘favorited’ tweet, from an assistant editor for The New Republic:

“If I were running Bloomberg View…the thing I would most want would be for Bloomberg to get hit by a bus.”

Ha. Ha. This is hilarious, right?

These are the same people who, in the wake of many mass shootings, have claimed that one of Sarah Palin’s campaign websites was indirectly responsible for senseless acts of violence (because of animated target signs that hovered over a map).

Disgusting, and yet there is a definite silver lining in all of this. Reason #3, as outlined above, is largely responsible for the intellectual Left’s impotence and fetish for domestic political violence.

Violence and the lust for power have gone virtually hand-in-hand with Leftism since the mid-19th century, of course, and this is largely because their plans for humanity are simply not feasible. And these plans, in turn, are not feasible because they are not congruent with reality.

Let me see if I can illustrate my point by digressing for a moment. Benito Mussolini was a Leftist his entire life. National socialism for German workers was a child of the Left. Maoism and Leninism were Leftist to the core. All were violent. All failed miserably and yet I see the underpinnings of these philosophies – these worldviews – in the rhetoric of the present-day American Left.

Not good. Nor is it good that the present-day Left denies its own bloodlines. Conservatives and libertarians are often quick to fess up to any historical misdeeds done in the name of their ideologies. Not so with the Left. I think this may have to do with the fact that while Leftist regimes were responsible for hundreds of millions of unnecessary deaths in the 20th century alone there are very few historical misdeeds perpetrated in the name of classical liberalism.

At any rate, I’ll keep you all updated on my tally. In the name of justice I will also keep a tally on tweets of violent fantasies that go out in the name of libertarianism or conservatism. My sampling size is small, of course. I only follow intellectuals and publications that give voice to intellectuals. This will be interesting.

* The fact that an evil person’s political views have been marginalized is not what is important. I think such views (if any) should be, as there is obviously something other than a shooter’s political leanings that is responsible for the horrific violence. What is important is the fact that if this shooter had been a self-identified conservative or libertarian it would have been plastered all over the news and it would still be getting air time as you read this.

Around the Web

  1. The media’s shooting bias. An excellent take on the hypocrisy of the media. (read David Henderson’s take, too)
  2. Conservation Native American style (grab a cup of coffee)
  3. The mission to decentralize the internet; interesting argument, though I don’t think the internet is as centralized as the author makes it out to be.
  4. Doug Bandow on North Korea’s ongoing purges
  5. Blast from the past: What did Marxism look like in Mozambique in the 1980s?

The Pope, Capitalism, and los Yanqis

Below is a comment that seems to me to be missing about Pope Francis’ current grasping for the Nobel in Economics. It’s beyond the simple observation that what he said recently about capitalism re-affirms the simple fact that princes of the church want to do good but have not understood simple economics, ever. And, by the way, there is nothing new to what the Pope said. I heard the same when I was growing up in a progressive Catholic parish in Paris, a long, long time ago. (And no, I was not molested, except by that older girl-scout, another story obviously.)

The current pope is a member of the Jesuit order. In the Catholic world, the Jesuits enjoy a reputation for intellectualism. It’s true that almost all have advanced degrees. (This pope appears to be an exception.) It’s also probably true that the many schools the Jesuits run, including universities, are not allowed to fall below a certain minimum level of competence. Beyond this, 25 years of close observation tell me that their good reputation only holds in a relative sense. Only the widespread ignorance of the Catholic church and of its other religious orders makes the Jesuits look good. They are quite tightly wrapped in their prevailing ideology and largely blinded by it. That ideology happens to be left wing right now. (Jesuits used to be fierce right-wingers of the most ignorant, closed-minded kind.) I don’t expect any Jesuit to be an intellectual giant although a few are.

The Pope is also an Argentinean, a provincial Argentinean. He did not suddenly free himself from the associated intellectual burdens upon his election. Like many, nearly all (I have not done a count, I confess, Your Holiness) of his compatriots he has had to struggle all his life with the following question:

Why isn’t Argentina Canada, with a constant high level of prosperity and political institutions that guarantee stability and peaceful alternance in power?

A subsidiary question: Why does Argentina become rich every thirty years only to plunge back into poverty?

Confounded by the brutal reality of the fact that there is no response that does not point straight at themselves, Argentinean intellectuals have developed a short, undemanding answer and a long-winded complicated one, both of which hold them innocent of their plight.

The short answer is this: It’s because of los Yanqis.

Of course, there is a problem in the fact that Canada with many more and tighter economic and political links to the US performs splendidly on any measure of economic or social welfare.

I spent a good deal of my scintillating youth debunking the second, long answer to the query described above. They came out of Argentina in the late fifties as a narrative production called “Teoría de la dependencia.” It later morphed into something called “World System Theory” under the influence of an excellent book by an American.

To make a long story short the theories’ main allegations about Third World poverty were that the more economically tied poor countries were to major developed economies, (such as the American economy) the poorer they became. Those allegations finally did not hold up under the scrutiny permitted by computers handling large amounts of archival data. (See my own co-authored piece for example: Delacroix, Jacques and Charles Ragin. 1981. “Structural blockage: a cross-national study of economic dependence, state efficacy and under-development.” American Journal of Sociology. 86-6:1311-1347.) The modern empirical research performed in the US and other part of the English-speaking world utterly destroyed Latin fantasizing in that area.

Pope Francis did not get the news apparently. Few Latin Americans did. Proudly innocent of any understanding of statistics, they cling to their beloved narrative as tightly as they did in 1965. They may cling to it even more tightly than they did then since they tasted the dust of South Korea’s and even of India’s economic development. (I am deliberately not mentioning China’s real development and its fake relationship to “socialism” because I don’t want to have to write another ten pages.) It’s not my fault; the Pope is older than me. He never sat in my classroom or in any of my former students’ classrooms. We never got a chance to straighten him out.

You have to think of every one of Pope Francis’ economic pronouncement with the understanding that he would probably not receive a B in the Econ. 101 class of a good public university. (In a good private university, in a Jesuit university for example, there is a good chance he would be made to achieve a B by any means necessary, including legitimate means.)

I don’t blame the Pope or the Catholic Church much. The old Adam Smith’s The Wealth of Nations (1776) is still esoteric reading to many of our contemporaries, including college graduates, including most college professors, I would guess, including many who tango on in the media. (Just listen to National Public Radio.)

Happy 100th Birthday to the Federal Reserve!

How have they done?  

  

Image

 

 

…oh.

Libertariansk feminism

Jag hävdar att det finns två metoder för att tänka på samhället, det strukturella och det principiella, och att god samhällsförståelse uppnås genom den rätta blandningen av de två. Det jag i den här texten kallar för strukturanalys går ut på att hitta mönster, samband och orsaker bakom olika samhällsfenomen. En feminist som jag själv påstår exempelvis att människor ofta förhåller sig till sig själva och till varandra utefter vad de har mellan benen i stället för vad de har mellan öronen. Jag bygger mitt påstående på vad jag har uppfattat för mönster i min omvärld (och i mig själv). Genom den principiella analysen förstår man mänskligt agerande (”ekonomi”) och vilka våra politiska moraliska plikter är.

Svagheterna med en strukturanalys är att den aldrig kan säga att någonting med nödvändighet måste vara sant. Eftersom varje ny observation av världen kan omkullkasta all tidigare inhämtad kunskap kan en strukturanalys bara säga vad som är mer eller mindre sannolikt. Den kan inte heller säga någonting om människovärde annat än som en viss persons nytta för ett specifikt ändamåls skull: om Gunnel hjälpte till att bygga ett hus har hon ett värde medan Gunnar som bara tittade på är värdelös. Det innebär att strukturanalyser har sina begränsningar. De kan av skäl som förklaras nedan aldrig ligga till grund för lagstiftning.

Principanalysens styrka är att den kan leverera nödvändiga sanningar, men kan å andra sidan (i politiska sammanhang) aldrig säga vad som är önskvärt. Genom en principanalys kan man förklara moralisk motivation, att varje individ har rätt till sig själv och det är fel att använda människor som medel och inte som självändamål, alltså människovärde, samt ekonomi, men man kan inte mot bakgrund av en principanalys säga vilken handling som därmed är önskvärd. Mänskliga principer kan i politiska sammanhang bara i generella termer klargöra orsakssambanden mellan ekonomiska fenomen, och säga när och varför det är fel att med våld inskränka på människors frihet.

Politisk-filosofiskt sett baseras vänsterideologier på strukturanalyser. Vänstertänkare förstår samhället genom att titta på motsättningar mellan kapital och arbete eller maktförhållanden mellan olika samhällsklasser. De pekar på sådana mönster och formulerar politik därefter. I den här bemärkelsen är hela socialismen en strukturanalytisk förklaringsmodell. Socialistiska tänkare uppfattar mönster i världen som de i efterhand utvecklar teoretiska förklaringar till. Teoretiseringen ska sedan visa varför människan bättre förvaltar sina resurser gemensamt än individuellt, att det senare bör betraktas som en stöld från allmänheten, och att olika regler och lagar måste instiftas för att begränsa kapitalets makt.

Vänstertänkare gör det grundläggande antagandet att samhället kan och bör dirigeras till att nå ett bättre tillstånd än det rådande. På grund av detta antagande har socialismens politiska gren alltid ett lösningsförslag på problem som uppmärksammas: det är bara att flytta resurser från ett ställe till ett annat, förbjuda en viss handelsform, höja en skatt eller sänka ett företag. Strukturanalysen gör socialismen politiskt attraktiv eftersom den till skillnad från sina principstyrda motståndare säger vad som bör göras i stället för vad som inte bör göras.

Feminismen är (delvis) strukturanalytisk. Jag påstår att vi i socialt samspel manifesterar kön i stället för människa och att detta mönster föder sig själv: den som lärt in ett beteende ägnar ett helt liv åt att utöva det, bekräfta det, och föra det vidare. Genom strukturanalysen kan vi förstå mycket av varför våldtäkter i störst utsträckning begås av män, varför flickor och pojkar ofta utvecklar kvinnliga respektive manliga personlighetsdrag, eller varför ett av könen är överrepresenterat i bolagsstyrelser. Vi kan tack vare strukturanalysen begripa generella normer och värderingar, men på grund av dess metodologiska brister kan analysen aldrig visa att någonting alltid är sant, eller att alla människor är på ett visst sätt. Feminismen måste vara ödmjuk och erkänna undantag: ingen kan antas vara skyldig innan så är bevisat.

På grund av dess metodologiska likheter absorberas feminismen lätt av socialismen. Strukturanalyserna smälter samman. Folk uppmärksammar i sin vardag sexism och samtidigt finns det politiker som säger att de kan lösa problemen – bingo för socialismen. Men när feministisk strukturanalys omvandlas till politik följer problemen som principanalysen uppmärksammar. Politiken kan inte erbjuda fullständig moralisk motivation och saknar därmed legitimitet; den använder människor som medel i stället för som självändamål, och den är oförenlig med principen att människan har en principiell rätt till sig själv. När socialism sväljer feminism växer båda, men inte utan offer.

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Problemet för strukturanalysen är att den inte kan erkänna principanalysen utan att samtidigt rycka bort mattan under fötterna på sig själv. Om det är sant att människan har en principiell rätt till sig själv är ens egna grundantaganden felaktiga: man varken kan eller får koordinera om samhället ovanifrån. Alltså finns det inga skäl för en vänsterfeminist att acceptera principanalyser. Sådana är, eftersom de underminerar den egna positionen, definitionsmässigt felaktiga. Men vänsterfeminismen sträcker sig ännu längre än så och placerar principanalytisk metodologi under sin egen strukturanalys: idén att det skulle finnas evigt rådande principer är en manifestation av underliggande strukturer – det är patriarkatets sätt att befästa sin makt.

Undertecknad har privilegier i samhället. Jag är en vit, välutbildad, heterosexuell man. Generellt sett har jag tolkningsföreträde och njuter av ett större socialt utrymme än många andra. Det är en feministisk strukturanalys som med största sannolikhet stämmer. Men enligt en vänsterfeminist innebär det också att den här textens budskap är mindre viktigt än dess avsändare. Eftersom texten är avsedd att försvaga strukturanalytisk metod och slutsats måste avsändaren tas i beaktande, och det som strukturanalysen förklarar om avsändaren bekräftar att textens budskap är felaktigt: den här texten är självt en produkt av patriarkala strukturer och ska bekämpas, inte läsas. Vänsterfeminism är liksom socialismen ett slutet tankesystem. Allt som talar mot den egna positionen utgör bevis för den egna tesen. Det är oundvikligt. Om motsatsen – principanalytisk metod och slutsats – erkändes skulle ju i stället ens egen politik vara fel.

Detta speglar strukturanalytisk politiks första brott mot mänskliga principer, nämligen att den inte kan erbjuda individen moralisk motivation (politisk legitimitet). Strukturanalysen observerar mönster i verkligheten och fäller därefter slutsatser om vad som bör göras. Eftersom vänsterfeminism och socialism är politiska tankeverksamheter måste slutsatserna om vad som bör göras gälla alla. Skatten ska höjas också för dem som inte vill ha höjd skatt. Men eftersom strukturanalytisk metod bara kan peka på större eller mindre sannolikheter kan den inte ligga som grund till lagstiftning utan att samtidigt drabba alla människor och händelser som utgör undantag från det generella mönstret. En lag mot sexism gäller även för icke-sexister. Ett sådant förfarande erbjuder enbart moralisk motivation till dem som accepterar förfarandet. Det vill säga, strukturanalytisk politik är bara legitimt i strukturanalytikers ögon. Den som också värderar mänskliga principer kan omöjligtvis acceptera att en metod som inte kan säga vad som är sant ensamt erhåller status som sanningssägare: metoden är inte legitim om den utgör en tvingande kraft gentemot människor som saknar skäl att acceptera den.

Jämför med ett litet samhälle där alla invånare har observerat hur en tappad tändsticka orsakade en eldsvåda i ett visst hus. Alla var där och såg hur tändstickan tappades och antände byggnaden, så man stiftar en lag som förbjuder tändstickor. I stället för att producera tändstickor ska samhället börja subventionera företaget Tändare™. Men du råkar var den ende som också såg hur ägaren till Tändare™ dränkte huset i bensin innan elden bröt ut. Är samhällets agerande motiverat på ett sätt som alla invånare har skäl att acceptera? Nej. Det bygger på en strukturanalys och strukturanalyser kan bara peka på större eller mindre sannolikheter. I det här fallet var analysen felaktig (eftersom den saknade minst en observation) och genererade samhällsbeslut som strider mot mänskliga principer. Man kan aldrig veta om strukturanalysen saknar en observation och alltså kan den inte ligga till grund för legitim lagstiftning.

Vänsterdebattörer menar då att man måste kläcka ägg för att göra omelett, alltså att enskilda individer måste komma i kläm för helhetens skull. Det är ett påstående som av sin natur inte kan erkänna mänskliga principer: individer reduceras av strukturanalysen till enheter som mönster utspelar sig genom. I egenskap av enheter är människor väldigt enkla att flytta omkring. Det är bara att utdela order i form av lagar. Men när man gör det bryter man mot en av de mest fundamentala principerna för mänsklig samlevnad, den som säger att det är fel att behandla människor som medel och inte som ändamål i sig. Som strukturanalytiker fäller man omdömet att samhället med en viss sannolikhet ser ut på ett visst sätt, och att det vore bättre om det i stället skulle se ut på ett annat. Om man på vägen dit måste straffa oskyldiga eller på annat sätt utnyttja somliga individer är sådana handlingar lika önskvärda som ändamålet självt. Den enskilde människan saknar helt värde bortom sin funktion för samhällets skull.

Människans egenvärde måste alltid förbises av en strukturanalys. De går inte att förena. Man kan försöka att vara så försonlig som möjligt och i största möjliga mån undvika att kränka egenvärdet, men grundbulten kvarstår: om en strukturanalys anammas så har inte individen respekterats då hennes självbestämmanderätt förutsätter att hon själv ska få välja att omfattas av strukturanalytisk policy eller inte. När detta frånsteg redan har gjorts, till vad hänvisar den strukturanalytiker som påstår sig i största möjliga mån respektera den enskilda människan? Hon kan inte hänvisa till människans rätt till sig själv utan att underminera sin egen position. Påståendet är helt enkelt tomt. Strukturanalytikern har redan fattat beslutet att genomföra den politik som hon själv formulerat, och eftersom detta beslut är fattat kommer hon om politiken kräver det också att frångå sitt påstående att respektera den enskilda människan. Rent metodologiskt kan människor aldrig bli mer än kalkylerbara enheter i en strukturanalys.

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Ovanstående är filosofiska abstraktioner, men som sådana kan de också användas för att beskriva vad som sker i verkligheten. När feminism sväljs av socialism följer politiska lösningsförslag på sociala problem. Den aktuella debatten om kvotering är utmärkt för att gestalta de filosofiska abstraktionerna. En strukturanalys som (korrekt) har uppmärksammat att män är överrepresenterade i bolagsstyrelser över hela världen ligger till grund för kvoteringspolitik. En viss kvot mellan kvinnor och män ska uppnås med hjälp av lagstiftning. Syftet varierar – ibland är det för att företagen ska gå bättre, vilket påstås bära stöd i en annan strukturanalys, men oftast antas jämställdhet i bolagsstyrelser vara ett självändamål. Detta förfarande är oetiskt på många sätt, vilket vänsterfeminister ibland erkänner fast viftar bort, men om man gör en principanalys ur ett genusperspektiv ser man att det är också antifeministiskt. De tre problemen – moralisk motivation, att människor ses som medel och inte som ändamål, samt självägandeskapet – är med nödvändighet närvarande.

Människorna i (och utanför) styrelserna drabbas av vänsterfeministisk kvoteringspolitik då denne endast erbjuder moralisk motivation till dem som redan accepterar vänsterfeminismen. De som blir inkvoterade vet inte om de har sin styrelsepost på grund av sitt kön eller sin kompetens, och samma sak gäller de som blir utkvoterade. De kvinnor som redan hade en styrelsepost befinner sig dagligen i en miljö som präglas av ojämlikhet: de är undantag i ett sammanhang som i största del utgörs av män, och som sådana möter de redan i egenskap av kvinnor motstånd. Om kvoteringspolitiken implementeras måste de nu inte bara jobba dubbelt så hårt för att visa sin kompetens i en sexistisk miljö – de måste också svara för vänsterfeministisk politik. Att de faktiskt skulle göra sitt jobb bra på grund av vad de har mellan öronen och inte mellan benen ifrågasätts nu två gånger i stället för bara för en. Kvoteringspolitiken utgår från att kvinnor till skillnad från män behöver laga stöd för att nå styrelseposter. Det är en cementering av könsskillnader, inte en förändring: man har lyft kvinnor i håret tills de hänger i samma höjd som männen. Hur många i styrelserummen har skäl att respektera lagen när dess blotta existens antar att de i styrelserummen inte själva kan göra rätt sak? Kvotering är ur detta perspektiv ett antifeministiskt legitimitetsproblem.

För att genomföra en kvotering måste människorna reduceras till kalkylerbara enheter. De kan inte betraktas som människor och samtidigt lyftas i håret. Det vill säga, om vänsterfeminismen ens från början hade erkänt att kvinnor inte enbart är kvinnor, utan faktiskt människor, så har de nu definitivt gjutit i sten att kvinnor bara är medel som kan användas vid behov. Feminismens historia handlar om att kvinnor skulle frigöras från maktens våld och erkännas som fullständiga individer: de skulle erhålla äganderätt, arvsrätt och rösträtt, och på samma villkor som alla vuxna människor såväl stå till svars för sina handlingar som i domstol kunna kräva sin rätt gentemot andra. Denna individstatus som feminismen slagits för i århundraden vill strukturanalytiker ta från kvinnor. Vänsterfeminismen vrider klockan bakåt till den tid då kvinnor betraktades av stat och politik som egendom. Det talar för att vänsterfeminister själva har feministisk självrannsakan kvar att göra: de utgår från att de har rätt att betrakta kvinnor som saker i stället för som människor.

I grund och botten sammanfattas ändå dessa problem genom tesen om människans rätt till sig själv. Om det är sant att människan har rätt till sig själv, vilken rätt har då vänsterfeminister att lagstifta att kvinnor inte bemöts i egenskap av människor, utan kön? Det är en sak att uppmärksamma fenomenet socialt, vilket det är min mening att alla borde göra, men att stifta lagar som säger att kvinnor definitionsmässigt – som om det alltid var fallet – bemöts som någonting annat än människor är att kränka kvinnors rätt till sig själva. Ingen har rätt att i lag slå fast att den bild en kvinna har av sig själv inte stämmer, att hennes sätt att uttrycka sig är fel, att hon inte förtjänat sina framgångar eller – ännu värre – att hon inte klarar att skapa sina egna framgångar. Kvotering tar kvinnors rätt och möjlighet att uppleva stolthet över sina prestationer. Enligt lagen är de bara kvinnor – enheter i systemet och produkter av strukturer som definitionsmässigt inte är självständiga och fullvärdiga människor.

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Libertariansk feminism anammar både en strukturanalys och en principanalys, men skiljer också mellan socialt och politiskt. Lagar kan endast stiftas mot bakgrund av människans rätt till sig själv, vilket innebär att lagen – på sin höjd! – ska garantera att människor inte kränker varandras frihet att själva utöva sin rätt till sig själva. Den här texten behöver ingen fullständig introduktion till libertarianism, men om en eventuell läsare äger en lagbok kan hon riva ut ungefär fyra tusen sidor ur den för att få en uppfattning om hur tjock en lagbok egentligen borde vara. Orsakerna är flera. Framför allt kan man, vilket har redogjorts för ovan, inte stifta lagar i annat än människans själväganderätt. Men all annan lagstiftning medför också sekundära effekter. Då strukturanalytisk politik reducerar människor till enheter gör politiken anspråk på att äga det moraliska ansvar som människorna annars förvaltar.

Politik som försöker att lösa problemet med sexism och ojämlikhet riktar sig till ytan, inte till problemets kärna. Det är könsfördelningen i styrelserummet som rättas till, inte de hjärnor som hellre anställer män än kvinnor: strukturanalytiska politiker är mer måna om att det som syns ska vara tillfredsställande än att strukturerna själva ska förändras. De underliggande strukturerna berörs inte av strukturanalytisk politik, utan av strukturanalytiskt socialt engagemang. I ett vänsterpolitiskt samhälle blir det politikens, inte människornas, uppgift att förändra det som är fel socialt. Det medför av naturliga skäl minskade tendenser till och incitament att arrangera om samhället underifrån. Om man uppmärksammar ett problem i ett samhälle där politiken har rollen som problemlösare – varför ska man då själv lösa problemet?

Det som från vänsterfeministiskt håll betraktas som principanalysens svaghet, att den inte kan säga vad som bör göras utan endast vad som inte bör göras, är nyckeln till den rätta blandningen mellan struktur- och principanalys. Strukturanalysen kan inte heller säga vad som bör göras, utan bara vad som med större eller mindre sannolikt är önskvärt enligt samma analys. Återigen: det slutna tankesystemet genererar sina egna slutsatser. Principanalysen förklarar varför samhällets tvingande institutioner, lagen och rättsväsendet, enbart ska utgöra spelregler som medlar mellan oförenliga viljor inuti samhället: det är fel att med våld tvinga någon att underkasta sig ett beslut vars underlag de inte accepterar. Det innebär att principanalytisk politik helt avstår från att fälla omdömen om i vilken riktning samhället bör röra sig. Sådana omdömen är nämligen inte politiska, utan sociala. Om färdriktningen lagstiftas om följer oundvikligen de problem som redogjorts för ovan, men därtill berövas de som lyder under lagstiftningen sitt ansvarsutrymme om den sociala sfären politiseras. Precis som att den privata industrin inte tillverkar bilar om staten bedriver bilproduktion överlåter enskilda individer sitt moraliska ansvar för omvärlden till staten om den bedriver färdriktningspolitik.

Att socialismen har absorberat feminismen innebär att ett gigantiskt problemområde lyfts från den sociala sfären till den politiska. Det är som att göra politik av sitt rökberoende i stället för att sluta röka. Signalerna som politiken sänder, att de bär ansvar för privatlivet, ger förstås också effekt: om människan inte förväntas ta ansvar gör hon inte heller det. Eftersom politiken inte kan lösa problemet, utan snarare tvärtom eftersom de rör till det på ytan, är vänsterfeminismen ett hot mot feminismen. Den sliter hela frågan itu och gömmer den faktiska ojämlikheten och sexismen under pseudodebatter om hur, inte varför, politiken ska lösa problemen. Sjukdomen försvinner inte för att vänsterfeminismen medicinerar symptomen – den fortsätter att förpesta tillvaron för miljoner människor samtidigt som politiker av väljartaktiska skäl diskuterar vilken slags medicin som bör ordineras.

Libertariansk feminism sluter sig till feminismens historia: alla vuxna människor ska stå som fria jämlikar inför lagen oavsett kön, sexuell identitet och preferens, och så vidare. Kampen om juridisk jämlikhet är fruktansvärt viktig, och den är helt och hållet politisk trots att den härleds ur principen om människans rätt till sig själv. Men därtill är den libertarianska feministen också engagerad privat, så som förväntas av alla politisk-libertarianska sympatisörer. Det finns sociala problem som sexism och rasism och som politisk libertarian måste man både erkänna och motarbeta sådana fenomen. Då är strukturanalysen ovärderlig. Den används inte till att bygga politik, utan till att bygga samhällelig gemenskap.

Pope Francis on Economics

by Fred E. Foldvary

Any statements which deplore “trickle down” economics reveal that the author has not quite yet grasped the heart of economics.

On November 26, 2013, The Vatican press published the apostolic exhortation, “The Joy of the Gospel.” The text was written in Spanish, and its full title in the English translation (converted here from upper case to initial capitals) is “Evangelii Gaudium of the Holy Father Francis to the Bishops, Clergy, Consecrated Persons and the Lay Faithful on the Proclamation of the Gospel in Today’s World.” Besides its religious calls, Pope Francis makes statements about today’s economic problems, and calls for greater economic justice.

One of the aims of this proclamation is to point out “new paths for the Church’s journey in years to come.” One of the questions the Pope seeks to discuss is “the inclusion of the poor in society.” Chapter Two is entitled, “Amid the Crisis of Communal Commitment.” In paragraph 52, Francis writes that “today we also have to say ‘thou shalt not’ to an economy of exclusion and inequality. Such an economy kills… Today everything comes under the laws of competition and the survival of the fittest, where the powerful feed upon the powerless.”

The Pope is wise and correct in seeing the harm done by inequality, but I urge him to see past the appearances to study the underlying reality. What provides the powerful with their might? The state has the ultimate power of force, and by its power to tax, to restrict, to mandate, and to subsidize, the state endows the powerful with the means to feed on the powerless. Market competition as such cannot impose force, and it does not create poverty. In a free society, each person has the power to be employed and pursue happiness. In a truly free market, all are fit to survive, because workers have access to natural opportunities. It is government intervention that stops this access.

Paragraph 54 is the key, widely cited, economic passage. We need to be sure that the English version is true to the original Spanish. In Spanish, Francis wrote, “algunos todavía defienden las teorías del « derrame », que suponen que todo crecimiento económico, favorecido por la libertad de mercado, logra provocar por sí mismo mayor equidad e inclusión social en el mundo.”

The Vatican’s English translation says, “some people continue to defend trickle-down theories which assume that economic growth, encouraged by a free market, will inevitably succeed in bringing about greater justice and inclusiveness in the world.”

The English-edition term “trickle-down theories” is translated from the Spanish, “teoria del derrame.” “Derrame” means a slow leak, hence a trickle, and so the English translation is accurate. The translated term “free market” is more literally “the liberty of the market” in the original Spanish, but the meaning is the same.

As noted by Harvard professor Greg Mankiw in his blog, critics of markets often use the term “trickle down” as a pejorative for the effects of a market economy. There is indeed a trickle down effect, for example, when a tourist resort is built in a location with many poor people, where a few get hired to work to clean rooms and wash dishes. A bit of the wealth of the resort trickles to the local population. But this situation does not confront the issue of why the poverty exists in the first place.

The theory of the free market is not one of “trickle down.” A truly free market is a fountain that gushes up wealth for all. Moreover, economic growth in market economies has indeed raised millions of persons up from poverty. However, the theory of market-driven growth does not claim that growth brings justice. The causation is the opposite: economic justice promotes growth. Moreover, justice and liberty are two faces of the same coin, so if a market has liberty, it must also provide justice.

The Pope continues: “This opinion, which has never been confirmed by the facts, expresses a crude and naïve trust in the goodness of those wielding economic power and in the sacralized workings of the prevailing economic system.”

But the proposition that free markets provide growth that benefits all is not a mere opinion. The proposition is a theory of growth that was first analyzed by the French economists of the 1700s, who concluded that the unhampered market, with free trade, would provide the greatest prosperity for all.

The prescription of the French economists was to abolish taxes on labor and trade, and instead use the surplus of the economy, which is land rent, for public revenue. Adam Smith in his Wealth of Nations brought this theory into classical economics. The American economist Henry George a century later explained in detail how land rent captures the gains from economic progress, and how growth generates inequality and poverty if that rent is not equally shared.

Markets have had various degrees of freedom, but there is no truly free market in the world today. Those who advocate a pure free market do not defend the “prevailing economic system,” but rather, they seek to stop the state’s subsidy of economic powers. The greatest subsidy and economic power is the land rent generated by the public goods provided by government.

The Pope is correct in decrying “the denial of the primacy of the human person” (paragraph 55) and that “Behind this attitude lurks a rejection of ethics” (57). Ethics and the primacy of the human person requires the equal right of each person to pursue happiness without harming others and to keep the earnings of his labor, as recognized by the commandment, “Thou shalt not steal.” Ethics must also respect the equal sharing of the benefits of nature and community, as stated in Ecclesiastes 5:9, “the profit of the earth is for all.”

The heart of economics is the understanding of the root cause of poverty: the forced redistribution of wealth from the working poor to the landed rich. This is caused not by markets but from state policy. It is good that Pope Francis seeks to remedy poverty. His “new path” should be to go more deeply into the economics and politics of maldistribution.

Uruguayan government: “monopoly” on pot

Last week, Uruguay’s government passed legislation to legalize marijuana. While the government will not be growing any cannabis plants (they are leaving that to private cultivators and farmers), the state will be playing a major role in the market… by fixing the price for marijuana at $1 per gram.

The rationale behind this production legalization and price fixing is to limit the amount of marijuana being trafficked into the country (mainly from Paraguay). As many of you may know, the narcotics trafficking business in Latin America is wrought with intense violence and organized crime. By fixing the price at $1 a gram, government officials believe this initiative will drive these traffickers out of business (at least in Uruguay). However, as all government interventions go, we need to ask ourselves, what are the possible unintended consequences lurking around the corner?

The issue I have is not with the legalization of marijuana, but with the price-fixing component of the legislation. Interventions into the market distort information (price) signals, forcing entrepreneurs to work off of incorrect information for their profit and loss calculations. Given that the drug market is already entrenched in these distortions, is this price-fixing component of the legislation a step in the right direction, or does it just complicate matters further?

The incentive structure, given the fixed price, is not the same as it would be in a free market. Any incentive that could have pushed these traffickers to move away from violence if it resulted in greater profits has been removed. Perhaps these violent traffickers will leave the marijuana business in Uruguay, but will they relocate efforts to other countries, or perhaps begin focusing on different illegal narcotics to traffic into Uruguay? If these new freedoms being granted to Uruguayans are coming at the cost of increased violence in other countries as a result of this price-fixing component, should we consider this a success?

A Conspiracy of Debacles: the Advent of Single Payer?

I don’t believe much in conspiracies. For one thing, they require secrecy and belief in the other guy not to spill the beans. Often, information connected with conspiracies has value, economic value or simply psychic value (“I already knew it yesterday!”) Hence, the frequent betrayal. Moreover, people in general mess up, the conspiratorial group tends to amplify the mess. For all these reasons, mention the conspiracy against Julius Caesar and I will tell you it’s not obvious it happened. I am skeptical about conspiracies in general but I can make exceptions.

Today, in December 2013, my skepticism is vacillating. I am skeptical about my usual skepticism, you might say. The reason is that I have never seen a governmental debacle of the magnitude of the current roll out of the Affordable Care Act (It’s “Obamacare.” Don’t even try to correct me on this. I heard the president with my own ears claim the nickname.) The present demonstration of incompetence is so out of proportion with everything I have experienced in my life that a part of my brain is whispering to the other that it can’t just be simple incompetence. To begin with, it seems to me that an average nerdy company would have done a better job of the electronic exchanges: WSJ says 12/12/13 that in all of Oregon 44 people have enrolled. (My friend Scott from Silicon Valley will correct me if my assessment of the ease of setting up the exchanges is wrong.) Furthermore, in an operation of this complexity and of this magnitude at best, some degree of failure was to be expected. Any normally prudent person would have set up a fail safe mechanism, a second chance device, or, at least, readied a large lifeboat. None of the above exists it seems. I have trouble believing in a simple oversight.

Beyond the electronic failure -which is guaranteed to induce sneering hostility in the young who use EBay and Amazon with their eyes closed – the same people desperately needed to join, there is the deleterious substance of the reform: Many people find themselves saddled with larger premiums, higher deductible and often both. I don’t know how many. I don’t think anyone knows how many. It does not matter but those reporting that they are so affected are not, cannot all be Tea Party fanatics.

Even the main redeeming virtue of this disaster has been largely withdrawn. I heard that the Congressional Budget Office had estimated that 30 million people would still be off the health insurance roles after the whole Obamacare law is implemented. It’s as if a malignant hand had deliberately withdrawn the last consolation from the disaster: It will make you poorer; it might leave you with a doctor you don’t like (“might”); it leaves you exposed without health insurance although you used to have a plan with which you were satisfied; and it won’t even help that much those it was supposed to help.

Digression on Tech. source note: The first numbers come from an editorial in the 12/12/13 Wall Street Journal. The notion that millions of non-insured will remain uninsured even under the best hypothesis is all over the media. I am not able to cite a precise source. Make a note that I will not consider any lazy and irresponsible denial of this assertion. If you think that’s not true, that I misheard or heard well something false, just say so here, explain why you are sure it’s wrong, and sign your name. I will publish any denial in bold letters. Girlish snickering is not welcome.

By the way, I don’t want you to think that I am implicitly legitimizing the Democratic claims about the number of real uninsured. I never bought the “millions of uninsured” argument. Two reasons. First, it confused “no insurance” with no “health care.” It also confounded and confounds “inefficient way to deliver care” with “the poor dying on the hospital lawn for lack of care.” More importantly, I became convinced that the poor, powerless abandoned souls imagery the Democratic Party uses to characterize the uninsured is largely an invention. Many of the formerly uninsured are people already legible for existing programs who were not enrolled, many children of the irresponsible and incompetent, for example, probably some isolated older people. Other non-insured are clearly rich enough to afford health insurance and simply don’t take he trouble to buy it. Others, mostly young people who are not rich, make the rational calculation that they are quite unlikely to become seriously sick. They engage in low-stake gamble about their proximate health. Once you added the three subgroups of the uninsured, the pathetic-sounding category “ uninsured” melted to little, to next to nothing.

I can ignore my disbelief about this for the time being. I just assume that millions of Americans thought the reform was necessary for reasons of compassion toward the more vulnerable among us. Absent or diminished this justification and this rationalization many of the same Americans will feel disappointed or even cheated. (I am charitably ignoring the claim that the scheme would make health insurance cheaper.)

Now, let’s project ourselves only four to six weeks, to the 2014 State of the Union Address. By that time, by law, most everyone is supposed to be covered. The insurance companies have continued withdrawing plans that are non-compliant, or that they fear may be judged non-compliant with the new law. The number of people between insurance plans has grown from an estimate of 4 million (the WSJ 12/12/13) to ten million. There are reasons to believe that the numbers of those left out will yet grow. The forty or fifty millions original uninsured remain mostly uninsured. The young that the new law unaccountably counted on to finance the new project stay away in droves. The fine they incur, after all, is not much higher than the beer bill for three average parties. Discouraged by the mess, the shamble, the unpredictability, small businesses nearly all shed their health coverage.

In this scenario, in a matter of weeks, the number of Americans without legally required health insurance rockets up to some large proportion of the population, perhaps to one American in four, even one in three. At that point, according to the implicit liberal narrative, we have a national life-and-death disaster, an event that makes Katrina look like a Cajun picnic. According to the same implicit narrative which the Democratic hierarchy cannot suddenly denounce, people are going soon to begin dying in the streets. What was but recently a controversial reform has become a national emergency.

What’s a normally compassionate, responsible president to do under the circumstances? I mean any president?

The answer is blindingly clear: In this emergency, the president will announce that all Americans not otherwise covered are now under the existing, reasonably functional Medicare program. And, he will leave the accounting for later. And this accounting will not seem like much of a new problem because it’s just an enlargement of an old problem. (“The devil we know….”) The president could decree on such a radical measure without fear of much criticisms from the opposition. What Republican official will have the fortitude to insist that proper constitutional form must take precedence over the imminent distress, and possible death from neglect of millions? Which elected Republican will have what it takes to face the first media story – true or false – a single story of a youngish person dying for lack of care?

Many ordinary Americans will opt for the simple solution: Instead of digging around for an elusive insurance plan that suits them and that is also compliant, they will ask to join Medicare. Once nearly half of Americans are covered by Medicare, the private insurance companies will quietly surrender. Some will begin to specialize in luxury coverage for the very rich. Others will just re-focus on areas other than health care. Many will simply go bankrupt and then vanish (as happened in other countries under similar circumstances). Soon, the US too will have a single payer government run health insurance system. The Obama administration will have reached the Graal of all liberals since F.D. Roosevelt.

This would be an easy conspiracy to carry out because it does not require that explicit instructions be given to the co-conspirators. Hence, there is no possible leak, no chance of getting caught red-handed. It’s also a conspiracy that does not require extraordinary skills but only the subtle encouragement of government’s normal low standards of performance. Much of the deliberate sabotage of a real implementation of the new law would only have to take the form of inaction, for example, of the administrator in charge of the reform. This does not require talent but good nerves, or indifference. Ms Sebelius, the person in charge of implementing Obamacare has been reported by conservative media to have had no (zero) meetings with the president. If they are wrong, the real number must still be very low, lower than you would expect given the centrality of the scheme to the Obama presidency. That is if the president really wanted the implementation of the 2,000+ pages of the Affordable Care Act to go smoothly. If!

The most successful socialist revolution socializing more than 15% – and growing- of the largest economy in the world will have been achieved quickly and without much real opposition. Hurrah!

Now, this is all speculation. I am just connecting the dots. I hope I am completely wrong, that we are all facing an ordinary debacle, one due entirely to gross but innocent incompetence.

Personal note: I have seen the French single-payer system at work under trying circumstances. My subjective evaluation is that it works quite well. On the objective side, there is the fact that French men live two years longer on average than American men. (Yes, I too would like to believe it’s the red wine but I know to keep my inner child in line.) My objection to a government health sector is of a moral and political nature: We just don’t need more government; we need much less government in order to be free. Besides, one should not take for granted that we can do well whatever the French do well. Take ratatouille, for example, take pâté de campagne, etc.

Cell Phones on Airliners?

The FAA recently decided, tentatively, that cell phone use would be OK on commercial airplanes. But forthwith, moans went up from near and far and the FAA backed off. Lots of travelers understandably dread the prospect of captivity to loud conversations by boors seated inches away from them. It’s unclear at this time what the final decision will be.

Why does it never occur to anyone to let the owners of the airplanes decide this issue? They could experiment with various policies ranging from outright bans to unlimited use with all sorts of possibilities in between. Following Amtrak and some commuter railroads that have quiet cars, they could establish a no-talk section of the airplane like the non-smoking sections of yore. Or they could try pleading with talkers. Soon enough they will discover what their customers want and competitive pressures would force all airlines to fall into line.

That sort competitive experimentation works quite well in many market segments, as a moment’s reflection will confirm. So why do we hear nothing about this simple solution for the cell phone problem? Part of the answer, I fear, is that so many people are resigned to letting bureaucrats set the rules for practically all of life. An extreme example of this attitude is the kind of message that appears in my spam folder with a subject like “Obama lowers re-fi rates.” Of course this is nonsense but it suggests that a good many people think Obama has the power to set re-fi rates and worse: that it’s perfectly OK for him to wield such dictatorial powers.

Back to cell phones on airplanes: the whole issue came about as a result of determinations by the FAA technical staff that cell phone signals don’t really interfere with airplane communications as had been feared. That suggests a more difficult question: suppose there were credible evidence that cell phone use really was a threat to airplane communications. Should the FAA be empowered to ban cell phone use? I suggest that it does not. The airlines have an enormous incentive to avoid interference problems. If they were free to make their own decisions about this (again, assuming there was credible evidence of a real problem), their lawyers would be all over them about instituting their own prohibitions. The owners of the control towers (I’m envisioning a privatized FAA) would have strong incentives as well. Many passengers would be aware of the issue and would press for bans.

We have here another example of what a tough job we face, those of us who advocate free markets. The general public, Mencken’s “booboisie” if you will, hasn’t the mental horsepower to envision even modest deviations from the command and control paradigm that is smothering our society.