I wrote an article a few years ago about hyperinflation in ancient Rome (and blogged about it here), arguing that the social trust in issuing bodies has been a foundation for monetary value long before modern institutions.
I got a random notification that someone had actually read and cited my work in a recent article “The US Money Explosion of 2020, Monetarism and Inflation: Plagued by History?” I really liked the author’s concept: inflation during pandemic periods is staved off for years because of saving rates, but then the post-crisis period is actually when the most inflation occurs.
This passed my ‘gut check’: during a crisis, who blows their entire budget? It also passed my historical-precedent check, and not only because he researched the Spanish flu and medieval precedent; in the Roman hyperinflation, the inflation lagged decades behind the expanded monetary volume, and in fact came right as the civil wars that nearly brought the Empire to its knees came to an end.
So, in short, inflation-hawks, you are probably right to fear the dramatic expansion of the money supply; however, you won’t feel vindicated for potentially years to come. In an age where people look for causes today to become results tomorrow (EVERY DAY, the WSJ tells me “stocks moved up/down because MAJOR EVENT TODAY”), we need to lengthen our time horizons of analysis and recognize that, just maybe, the ramifications of today’s policies will not really be felt for years. Or, put in a more dire light, by the time we realize who is right, it will be too late to reassert social trust in monetary value, and the dollar will follow the denarius into histories of hyperinflations.
4 thoughts on “Pandemics and Hyperinflations”
[…] https://notesonliberty.com/2021/01/20/pandemics-and-hyperinflations/ […]
May we summarize:
1. Given human behavior, isn’t inflation inherent in any fiat currency? And
2. Doesn’t every inflating currency inevitably await its black swan?
Note a 1937 new Chevrolet was available for $750 …
Yes– you totally get it. Pandemic is just a good example of a black swan. Related: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1340588909974200321?lang=en
You got it right, I should’ve sold my silver miners when you wrote this article. However, I’m keeping them because they might increase in value sharply during the next 12 months. Am I too optimistic?