French Elections: Redux

French elections are ongoing.  Here is Dr. Delacroix one more time:

The first thing to know is that France is a country where common conservative and libertarian ideas about market efficacy are rare. A conservative stance is absent from the public discourse.

I think Hollande is going to be elected. He is the worst the French Socialist Party has to offer. He has never done anything in his life, like our current president, or worse. He does not even have the merit of being a member of an interesting minority. He is the pale consort of a former big loser in a French presidential election (Segolene Royal). How much lower can you get?

All this because Sarkozy annoyed too many people, swing voters, with his bad manners and because Strauss-Khan couldn’t keep his second thinking tool where it belongs long enough. Yes, Strauss-Khan was going to be the Socialist candidate. He understands money, unlike Hollande who knows nothing about money except that the “rich” have too much of it and that it’s the root of all evil.

Hollande is the worst of a Socialist Party that has had few new ideas, has not updated itself, in the past thirty years. However, his colorlessness, the fact that he barely exists may be a blessing. It’s possible that economic technocrats in his party, or close to it, will be able to make him do what’s needed: many reforms leaning toward austerity under some other name.

The alternative scenario is that several eastern and southern European countries leave the Euro zone one by one and that France follows. The Euro is kept alive in name early as a virtual currency to pay for cross-border transactions within Europe. It’s a good face-saving solution. Individual countries resurrect their independent currencies. Some will keep a formal vestiges of the Euro: the Eurofranc, the Eurolira, etc. Some small countries: Netherlands, Belgium, Austria, may form mini currency unions.

In the aftermath, the cost of living rises quickly in the individual European countries but not but much. The rise corresponds to the rebirth of intra-European transaction costs the Euro had reduced to next to nothing. I think the rise will be a lot less than 10%. Soon, there will be competitive devaluations between countries, impoverishing several of them and making trouble for several American industries.

I can’t read the future beyond this.

Any thoughts?

4 thoughts on “French Elections: Redux

  1. It also appears to me that the French have a very low opinion of the United States, except when they hear German troops approaching.

    • Haha! Nah, I backpacked through France a few years ago and French people absolutely love Americans and American culture (anti-Americanism is mostly prevalent in the capitals of Germany and France, but is virtually absent anywhere else on the continent). They proved that they are good friends when they opposed George W. Bush’s invasion of Iraq.

      Think about it this way: does your best friend tell you want you want to hear or what you need to hear?

    • I’m sure Brandon that the cast majority of the french love americans. I was using a stereotypical joke I heard long ago. Speaking of Comparative Political Science (were we? 😉 ) I have a good joke I learned back at the uni. What are the differences between the the American, the German, and the French systems of Civil Rights?

      In America, if it is not expressly forbidden then it is permitted. In Germany, if it not expressly permitted it is forbidden. In France even it’s expressly forbidden, then it’s still permitted.

Please keep it civil

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