How about no? Netherlands referendum

How-About-No-01Well, it wasn’t so unsuspected, how many people want us to think. Over 60% of 30-35% of voted citizens were against euro-association with Ukraine. Ukrainian politicans traditionally speaking about “russian hand” and other weird stuff, russian trolls experiencing huge wave of a butthurt from their ukrainian colleagues in the political articles comment sections. Everything as always. I personally think, that NO is better that YES in this particular situation:

  1. Law base is poor. Ukrainian Government should rise quality of anti-corruptional laws and deal somehow with unempoyment.
  2. Donbass civil war isn’t over yet. And it’s like a red flag before EU bull’s eyes.
  3. Panama Papers and offshore scandal.

So, why NO is better, than YES?

In my own humble opinion, euro-association means “total victory” for Ukraine and an approvement, that Ukraine itself passed all the requirements of EU and “Maidan quest” is completed. I personally afraid that after association Ukrainian Government will forget about current problems listed above and citizens will live worse. Economical situation will get worse too. “Hey, people, what else do you want? We passed the association test and it by default means that everything is ok”. When first wave of total euphoria will come to an end, the understanding will come: for simple worker, or miner, or vaiter, etc. nothing changed. People suffered before – and they will suffer after. Dealing with unstable situation and unemployment, brother-killing war and corruption are the only ways to EU.

Обзор событий в России за последние несколько недель. Часть 1

В Санкт-Петербург пришло лето, и практически сразу же ушло. Третью неделю подряд идут дожди. Холодно – как будто поздняя осень, фермеры опасаются за свой урожай. Такими темпами скоро начнется листопад! В общем, холодное лето, на фоне которого огнём горят события последних недель, про которые я сейчас вам расскажу. В последнее время не часто пишу, так как работа на заводе и развитие собственного вебсайта требует много усилий. Ко всему прочему, я уже четвертый месяц усиленно учу норвежский язык.

Алые паруса. Это традиционный праздник моего города (я живу в Санкт-Петербурге), который собирает зрителей со всей России и даже из-за рубежа. Алые паруса – это праздник выпускников школ, который проходит после выпускных экзаменов перед началом экзаменов в университет. Он сопровождается народными гуляниями, концертами и массовыми мероприятиями с салютом. Главная особенность – в акваторию Финского залива и далее в реку Неву входит шикарный парусный корабль с алыми парусами (если вы помните, подобный образ использовался в повести Александра Грина “Алые паруса”, где героиня Ассоль ждала своего моряка – и дождалась), который символизирует достижение целей и завершение первого этапа обучения в школе. Фактически, выпускникам открывается дорога в жизнь, а корабль это символизирует. Учитывая ошеломляющую подсветку корабля – выглядит это просто потрясающе! В этом году событие также собрало множество гостей из различных регионов России и носило слегка политический подтекст, так как было сопряжено с празднованием возвращения Крыма в состав Российской Федерации. Но вообще это не политический праздник, просто в этом году так совпало…

Отмена постановления о разрешении на ввод войск в Украину. Как многие знают, при разрастании кризиса на Украине республика Крым и город Севастополь провели референдумы о независимости и пожелали вступить в состав Российской Федерации. 1 марта 2014 года президент Российской Федерации Владимир Путин запросил у Совета Федерации разрешение на применение вооруженных сил России на территории Украины при дальнейшей эскалации конфликта и появления угрозы гражданам России, которые проживают в приграничных областях, а также в самой Украине. Совет Федерации такое разрешение президенту предоставил, но по факту он им не воспользовался, чтобы в дальнейшем не усугублять ситуацию, к тому же кризис переместился на юго-восток в район Луганска Краматорска и Донецкой области. По факту президент обладал этим разрешением на применение войск для защиты граждан России. На днях президент предложил Совету Федерации отменить это разрешение, так как наблюдается определенный спад напряжения. Этот поступок должен послужить стабилизации кризиса в Украине и скорейшему разрешению ситуации. Правительство США и руководство Евросоюза положительно оценило этот шаг, так что ждем дальнейшего развития ситуации.

Укрепление отношений между Россией и Китаем. На днях был подписан очередной этап договора между российским “Газпромом” и их коллегами из Китая. Обе стороны готовы к расчетам и в российских рублях, и в юанях. Это очень важный шаг, который способствует укреплению дипломатических отношений между нашими странами. Одновременно с этим ряд китайских фирм инициирует ряд программ по строительству дешевого и доступного жилья для российских граждан.

В следующей части этой записи расскажу вам про некоторые другие важные события, которые успели произойти за последнее время. Оставайтесь на связи!

Eurocraine and Russocraine

Elections are supposed to achieve social peace by providing a government that represents the people. But voting has not brought peace to Ukraine. Many people distrust the honesty of the elections, and many in Ukraine have disagreed with the policies of the government, both when policy favored association with Europe and when it favored association with Russia. The fact that many voters in the Crimea and eastern Ukraine favor union with Russia, or else independence, shows that many there do not feel well represented.

The election in Ukraine will not solve the governance problem, because it is just a continuation of the same system that some are rebelling against. Ukraine needs a new structure of government and democracy. The solution is to shift political power from the central government to the people as individuals. When a citizen of Ukraine holds power equal to that of all others, he will have nothing to rebel against.

Individual sovereignty can best be represented by a neighborhood council. The neighborhood should have a small population, such as a thousand residents. That is small enough for the people to personally know the candidates and for someone to be elected with little cost. The government of Ukraine can begin the decentralization by establishing neighborhood or village election districts. If the neighborhood population is a mixture of ethnic Ukrainians and Russians, and the people wish to have a council that is aligned with one of these groups, or other interests, then the residents may regroup their districts and have councils that best represent their individual interests. This is the level-one level of governance.

In the Russian language, “Soviet” means “council”. The Soviet Union was supposed to be a union of elected councils, and there was indeed a structure of bottom-up multi-level soviets, but in practice, the Communist Party ruled top-down. Ukraine should resurrect the old Soviet system, which actually derives from the 19th-century anarchist concept of associations of voluntary communities. The Bolshevik slogan was, “All power to the soviets!”, but instead they perpetuated the dictatorship of the proletariat, usurped by the party oligarchs.

The power of the neighborhoods has to be constrained by a constitution that recognizes and enforces natural rights. In most countries, constitutions that proclaimed liberty have failed to be implemented, mainly because the structure of mass voting facilitates plutocracy, with policies that transfer wealth from workers to the moneyed and landed interests, resulting in poverty that gets remedied by trickle-down government welfare.

But with the bottom-up system of genuine soviets, the government would much better represent the people, and constitutional rights would be more strongly protected. As the level-one councils elect level-two regional councils, and these elect the supreme soviet or national parliament, the structure would prevent the usurpation of power from the top. The president would be elected by the parliament and easily dismissed if the people are dissatisfied. Any council member could be recalled by the council that elected him.

Decentralized government gets hampered by centralized tax collection, such as an income tax or value-added tax imposed from the central government. Decentralized governance is suitable to decentralized public finance, and the source of public revenue best suited to local power is the tapping of the area’s land rent or land value. Taxing wealth and investment invites capital to flee, hide, or else it shrinks from the burden. But land cannot hide, and it does not run away, nor does land shrink when taxed. Revenue from land-value taxation can be applied by the level-two councils, with revenues sent to both the level-one and level-three governments.

Ukraine needs two things: better governance and strong economic growth. The replacement of the current complex of market-hampering taxes by taxes on land value and pollution would give the economy such a comparative advantage that investment would pour in, wages would rise, the government would be able to pay off its debts, and the economic misery that fuels much of the unrest would be replaced by an economic joy that would eliminate the economic motivation to join Russia.

With small-group voting, the residents of eastern Ukraine would have their own local Russian-speaking councils, and probably ethnic Russian level-two councils representing some 25 thousand persons. The constitution of Ukraine should devolve most government services to the level-two councils, including local security, education, and public works. The ethnic Russians would no longer feel alienated from the government, and the government of Russia would find it difficult to control the local governments, because the council members would come from the people.

As to the situation of takeovers of government buildings in eastern Ukraine, the national government should surround them with walls of troops while establishing new centers of administration in other guarded buildings. But a lasting solution needs to replace the current government with councils that people feel represents them. The one good thing about the old Soviet Union, the bottom-up multi-level system of soviets, was the element that was most discarded without any debate. Ukraine: bring back the soviets, only this time, make it “all power to the people” as individuals and their chosen councils.

Встреча в Женеве по украинскому вопросу

Друзья,  думаю что для вас не секрет, что вчера состоялась многосторонняя встреча между представителями Украины, России, ООН и кого-то еще в Женеве. По итогам встречи были приняты некоторые договоренности. В частности, стороны пришли к соглашению, что украинский кризис должны решать сами украинцы своими силами без помощи России и Запада. И дураку понятно, что сейчас идет противостояние между Россией и Западом через Украину, у кого яйца крепче (BALLS, not EGGS!). Противоположные взгляды на кризис пока что не дают нам придти к компромиссу. Во многом этому способствует и информационная война в СМИ, которая сталкивает лбами братские народы на потеху сетевых троллей и всяких маргинальных элементов общества.

В ближайшее время Украина должна наладить многонациональный диалог между регионами страны и разработать новый план конституции, который дал бы расширенные полномочия автономиям, утвердил статус русского языка. Неспокойный юго-восток Украины, который длительное время был территорией России, и лишь в 19-каких-то годах стал частью Украины нужно успокаивать не силой, а через диалог.

Я уверен, что только через диалог можно добиться прогрессивных результатов.

Привет из Империи Зла

Прошло несколько месяцов с начала конфликта на Украине, и русский народ потихоньку учится жить в новом изменившемся и продолжающем изменяться мире. Неопределенная геополитическая ситуация и санкции США уже начинают сказываться на жизни простых граждан. Потихоньку растут цены, государства продолжают обмениваться мелкими вредительствами, запрещая продажу тех или иных товаров, которые якобы “не соответствуют законодательству”. В основном это касается продуктов питания из Украины, и частично из Польши (там действительно какие-то проблемы с бактериологической безопасностью продуктов). В остальном же для рядовых граждан мало что изменилось. Не считая спада в экономике, рост которой к концу 2014 года прогнозируется всего лишь на уровне 0,4% и уменьшения кредитных операций (люди сами боятся брать кредиты, потому что не знают, что будет в мире через месяц), наблюдается отток зарубежного капитала из наших банков. Основные усилия банковской системы России направлены на поддержание рубля, который значительно потерял в стоимости в связи с последними событиями (около 10%, если не ошибаюсь). Рост мировых цен на нефть, неясная ситуация с украинским долгом по российскому природному газу а также внесение в санкционные списки США нескольких важных предпринимателей из России подорвали основу рубля, но в целом ситуация стабильная, хоть и с негативным прогнозом. В городах “империи зла” все спокойно, люди живут как жили и занимаются своими обычными делами: работают, отдыхают, посещают концерты и мероприятия, выставки, общаются в skype. В наши края постепенно приходит весна. В этом году она задерживается. Уже середина апреля, а у нас все еще достаточно холодно. Хотя возможно это компенсируется теплой зимой, которая была в этом году. Довольно много говорят о политике. В основном простые люди сходятся на мысли, что западная пропаганда очень сильно демонизирует образ президента России, и как следствие – в умах простых американцев, европейцев и азиатов распространяется неверное представление о “злых русских”. Хочется вспомнить одну русскую поговорку “не суди человека по его одежде, а суди по его поступкам” (i don’t know how your google translators will translate this, so i provide my own translation: “don’t judge someone’s clothes – judge his deeds”). Далеко не все русские являются империалистами, коварными захватчиками, которые спят и видят, как бы отхватить от Украины очередной кусок. Подавляющее большинство – такие же люди как и вы, запутавшиеся в войне пропаганды и желающие, чтобы вся эта ситуация с Украиной поскорее разрешилась. Берегите себя!

Around the Web

  1. Ukraine and BRICS from historian Daniel Larison at The American Conservative
  2. The Sympathy Problem: Is Germany a Country of Russia Apologists? By Ralf Neukirch at Spiegel Online
  3. You Don’t Know the Best Way to Deal with Russia from economist Bryan Caplan over at EconLog
  4. The Right to Self-Determination in International Law and Practice by political scientist Jason Sorens (PhD, Yale) over at the PileusBlog

Ukraine: The Diplomatic Solution; the Conservative Blessing in ObamaCare!

There is a distinct preference out there, for solving our differences of opinion with the Putin gangster state “through diplomacy.” An elementary explanation is sadly in order here.

Diplomacy refers to one party explaining to the other with polite words how much harm it could do to that other party. And then, the second party takes its turn explaining to the first how much damage it could do to it if it really wanted to.

Once everyone understands concretely the other party’s capacity for evil, the parties get together to arrive at a compromise that minimizes the evil that  either party does to the other. That’s in successful diplomacy. Diplomacy often fails however. In 1939, Hitler and the Brits were talking to each other until the exact eve of the invasion in the west.

So, in this case, diplomacy only has a chance of  succeeding if doing severe harm is on the table in a credible manner. No perceived credible threat, no diplomacy.

Does anyone really believe that you can talk softly, talk sweet reason to Putin and that he will come to his senses and begin acting nice at last?

Another thing: As everyone knows, Obamacare is foundering. I am beginning to believe it’s a blessing in disguise. Whole young generations who really needed it are learning why Big Government is bad even when it’s trying to act nice. One of my young liberal friends is in the process of making a U-turn, I think. I don’t give myself the credit, much as I would like to. Mr Obama did it. My friend has a new bumper sticker on his car that says: “Obama- Dick-Dick.” That’s in Santa Cruz County so, it takes some courage. At least, he does not care a bit if his car is scratched! (My, that’s was evil and sly; I already feel a little ashamed!)

The Obama administration is not releasing figures the citizenry has a legitimate interest in knowing, such as: How many who signed up are also paid up? How many of the new sign-ups were without health insurance before? What is the net gain – if any -in insured  people who did not join publicly supported health insurance?

Refusing to divulge these figures has only one purpose. It’s to impede the opposition. That’s already Fascism. Not gathering these figures when you can and when you know some part of the public wants them is also Fascism. (Fascism is not an epithet, it’s political description. (See:  “Fascism Explained” and others on this blog. )

ObamaCare was a dishonest venture from the first. If it had not been, its first act would have been to make all health insurance available across state lines so as to maximize competition between insurance companies. If any Republican lawmakers had resisted, it would have been a blood feast for the Democratic Party. Large-scale buddy capitalism is also part of a  classical Fascist program.

Undercover Occupants

[Editor’s note: the following is a short essay by Payam Ghorbanian. Payam was born in Tehran, Iran. He got his bachelor of science in Engineering from Zanjan University in Zanjan, Iran. He has been participating in liberal political activities and he was involved with some think tanks in Iran. He is doing research in the field of international relations and Iran’s foreign policy as an independent activist. He is now living in San Jose, California.

I am excited to post his thoughts because of their potential as a conduit for intercultural dialogue and exchange. I have left his essay largely intact, but did break up some of his longer paragraphs for clarity’s sake. Thanks to Payam for taking the time to write this.]

One of the worst Persian attitudes, which really makes me upset, is that we really like make everyone feel pleased and at the same time we are trying to make our friends, our families member, and finally ourselves feel proud. This seems to be just wasting of time and even sometime more than wasting. It really holds us back from being flexible and being more focused just on our life.

The fatal mistake in terms of power games is taking one step back because of pacifying your enemies. I remember these fatal mistakes occurred during Mr. Khatami presidency (1997 – 2005) and it seems that it is going to happen again. During that time reformists tried to please everyone. Liberals, communists, and extremists could fit in themselves in what they portrayed for future of Iran. The goal of “let’s get together” is just useful for the specific action and in a limited time not for unstable country like Iran. We are not taking the issues for the country like Switzerland. In fact, you cannot just chant when your enemies are ready to die for their sinister goals.

Mr. Rohani and his consultants during last month just tried to convince the middle class people that they are so preoccupied about what he has promised during his presidency campaign.  Rohani also said: “… I have never forgotten what I had said to my people but you should understand; there would be a prolonged way with unforeseen obstacles that we have to pass it through together…”. However, this is not the way that people of Iran are thinking and believing at this time. The fact is that the imprisonment of leaders of green movement has been lasting up until now and there are still so many political prisoners in prison. In fact the pace of executions is still through the roof and opposition can be called easily sedition.

All of these issues just mean that the new government and the new goals of basis changes have not been acknowledged by the powerful organizations that live in the parallel world of responsibility. These groups of extremists can take any action whenever they want without taking any obligation and no one has the authority to prosecute them. They are not supposed to be questioned and on the other hand, no one knows who they really are. I call them “Undercover Occupants” which means obviously they are connected to somewhere but where exactly this department of power is remains the question that no one has the answer of. There are always lots of rumors which they are the members of Basij militia or some religious departments but it is still in denial.

Four years age, in 2008, during the rebellious days of Tehran, these undercover occupants attacked The University of Tehran. So many students were injured and finally the supreme leader commanded the “Supreme National Security Council” to get involved and back them off. They also tried to condemn in public during the chairman of Islamic parliament (Ali Larijani) speech. In fact Ali Larijani is so close to the supreme leader! These undercover occupants were also involved in occupation of the embassy of the Great Britain in Tehran, which caused the big collapse of foreign policy for Iran. I can count thousands of these nonsense and non-logical movements which sometimes caused the supreme leader’s reactions. Occupants recently confronted president Rohani and actually went up against him after he got back home from New York. They criticized him that he was not authorized to talk to president Obama and that he put country down.

They are just like the people who think the mission of possessing of sacred goal is on their shoulders, no matter what would be the responsibility. When they think there is a threat they just interfere. I heard some of them are the presidents of the industries who occupied the manufacturing companies of Iran after the revolution and also the business men who could take advantage of governmental economic rent during these 35 years; therefore, they should be concerned about their positions when the wind of change flows.The undercover occupant groups really remind me of the Nomenklatura category inside the Soviet Union

Obviously President Rohani has decided to discard his goals about his domestic policy for a while until the nuclear issue and sanctions are still on the table. He really thinks being triumphant in talks between Iran and 5+1 can help him precede his domestic policy inside the country. However and on the flip side, the extremist members of the Islamic Parliaments and some members of the Revolutionary Guard put their total vigor to not let him proceed. The upcoming parliament’s election and economical situations will be so important for the players of this poker table. The supreme leader has not taken a side yet which is so meaningful in Islamic Republic of Iran. As I have heard, during this year the economic situations in Iran are getting better. The hope of better future has still long way to be cultivated but people are still hopeful to upcoming talks. These are all proofs that show us having better relations with powerful countries will help you to have better chances. We are not living in the separate worlds and our planet is so combined that being isolated just deprives you not anyone else.

Last month, foreign ministers of European countries and especially Mrs. Ashton had several meetings with foreign minister Zarif. Mrs. Ashton recently went to Iran and talked in person with Mr. Rohani. She had also a meeting with some political prisoners and their family members, which dragged the undercover occupants to the front of the Austria Embassy where that meeting had occurred. They were claiming who let her to talk to the “Fitna” followers, the name which they have been using for naming oppositions in Iran during election in 2008. After while the extremists in parliaments called up Mr. Zarif and the Minister of Intelligence and Security. They asked the same question that undercover occupants had asked before.

One of the recent issues which might partially help the extremists inside Iran for improving their positions is the issue of Ukraine. The commander of IAF (Iranian Armed Forces), Hassan Firuzabadi, clearly shows respect to what Russia has done inside the Ukraine and Crimea. He also said the vandals just pulled off the coup and it was not the process of legitimate transactional and transformational leadership. Now they believe the most newest powerful country just pops up and subsequently the consolidation of 5+1 is fragile right now so there is no need for retreating at this time which I think it could be somehow the fact that the United States and the NATO don’t want to respond literally to the Russia and president Putin in order to force them back. Finally the internal battle inside Iran would go on and this battle would demonstrate the balance of political groups, the supreme leader and the Revolutionary guard. It could be one of the effective occurrence for Iranians.

A Reverse Crimea in the West: Kaliningrad

Look at the Kaliningrad Oblast. It used to be Prussian Koenisberg, an important detail: Many Germans still feel for it, like Russians for Crimea. This is one part of Europe toward which the Germans might loose a little of their current prudent cool and cooperate.

Find Kaliningrad on the map.

Source: BBC
Source: InKaliningrad.com

It’s a small Russian exclave on the Baltic. It’s entirely sandwiched between two NATO members that are also members of the European Union, Lithuania and Poland. It must have some military value because it’s the headquarter of the Russian Baltic Fleet.

Kaliningrad has no direct land links to the rest of Russia. Sea links are along the shores of unfriendly to very unfriendly countries. I don’t see why it would be difficult to apply an on-and-off siege to that territory. I don’t mean that the West or the US should actually attempt to starve its about one million people. I am thinking cutting off the water intermittently, for example. Perhaps a few US warships could cruise off Kaliningrad with all guns carefully covered. We should be able to cause enough unpleasantness there to stampede part of the civilian population. We might just let Russian sailors there lead lonely and even more drunken lives than they do now.

After the gobbling up of Crimea, making it difficult for Russia to staff its isolated western outpost would be a worthwhile goal. Even giving high Kremlin officials a few bad nights of sleep would be better than nothing. Letting bullies get away with anything is always a bad idea. It’s like asking for more bullying in the future.

I don’t know why no one is talking about it, not the Obama administration, not the Republican opposition, not the supine press.

Are we that pathetic or merely ignorant?

Secession and libertarianism – Ukraine Edition

The most basic rule of schoolyard behavior is this: Don’t challenge the school bully if your knees are buckling under you. Mr Obama keeps ignoring the rule, with predictable results: One tyrant, one despot after another receives his confirmation that the USA is no dangerous, no matter what you do. Thinking the US in not dangerous is very dangerous for the world. I keep challenging the ones and the others, including mainstream libertarians, to say what will, or should replace the pax americana that has given us relative peace since 1945. No one cares to answer.

This introduction, not by way of beginning to argue that the US should have gone to war over Crimea. I don’t believe it should have; I don’t even think the US should have risked war ever so little because of Crimea. I think rather that Mr Obama should have been absent, with a pass for the nurse’s office, for example. Neither am I being pathetically “realistic,” here. Mine is a principled position. Let me explain.

Anyone who has any libertarian fiber but who maintains his criticality should be instinctively in favor of secessions. Two reasons.

First if being governed is an assault on individual liberty, being governed by those who are unlike you in some fundamental way is a doubly liberticide. Fundamental differences include, but are not limited to, language. That’s because your language largely determines the way you see the world and your sensitivities, what’s important to you as a person. Governors who have different beliefs, who operate on the basis of different assumptions, who nurture different dislikes than you are bound to commit slow rape on you every day of your life. That’s true even if they harbor zero hostile intention toward you. And that’s unless you volunteer, of course, as many immigrants like me – do.

I wish good luck to the Catalan independentists and to the Scottish autonomists. I would even if you proved to me beyond the shadow of a doubt that powerful economic interests undergirth their efforts. It’s true that Catalonia is more prosperous than the rest of Spain. It does not prevent Catalans from feelings how they do. They probably would, if they were less prosperous. I don’t know if the Scots would like to split from the UK absent North Sea oil but, if they do, they do, and that’s it. I believe, of course, that the Tibetans have had a solid claim for secession for all the time they have been under Chinese rule. (And, yes, it may well be that the objective quality of their lives has improved under Chinese Communist Party dictatorship.)

Am I saying that it’s better to be oppressed by those you think of as your kin?

Yes.

The Crimean population overwhelmingly wanted secession from Ukraine. Without the presence of Russian guns, the referendum would have been, maybe, 76 % in favor rather than 96%. The final result would have been the same. It’s not difficult to entertain this double thought: Putin is a gangster and the Crimeans would rather be Russian citizens.

Speaking of Putin: The fact that he used exactly the same arguments as Hitler in 1939 does not logically imply that he did something like dismantling and gobbling up independent Czechoslovakia. The Czechs and the Slovaks, were not volunteers the way most Crimeans are. The annexation of Crimea by Russia changes little to all this. (See below.) Crimeans did not feel Ukrainian, overall and they were tired of being very poor under the Ukraine. They would rather be moderately poor as Russians. It’s not hard to believe either.

The second reason for libertarians to favor secession instinctively is that rational people cannot treat the boundaries of nation-states as if they were sacred, the way most governments pretend to do. At best, one could argue that that fiction contributes to world stability. (I doubt it but it’s not a stupid position.) Rather, the borders of existing nation-states are often the result of centuries of sometimes successful wars (France), or of recent shameless robbery of one’s neighbors (the US), or of colonial bureaucratic insouciance (Iraq). In some cases, the tracing of boundaries looks like a joke: Take for example the long penis-like extension of Afghanistan into China in the eastern part of the former country. The mapmaker, probably a junior English officer must have chuckled with relief in his loneliness.

National boundaries may be useful or even indispensable (to control entry, of undesirables, for example) that makes them a necessity, or a necessary evil. Nothing confers on them a status above critical thinking: Sometimes, the violation of existing borders should not be countenanced; sometimes, such violation deserves only a shrug.

Note with respect to the present annexation of Crimea by Russia following this secession, I am saying nothing about the ensuing strengthening of the Russian kleptocracy. The encouragement of tyrants inherent in the Putin impunity also belongs in another essay.

The fact is that the prevention of secession has always produced tons of mischief, most of it violent, much of it an affront to basic human decency.

Hitler used the existence of a sizable German minority in a strategically important part of Czechoslovakia, of smaller Hungarians-speaking and of Ukrainian-speaking smaller minorities elsewhere to start World War II. It’s possible, even likely that Hitler would have used another excuse absent this one. But linguistic minority aspirations gave a cover of semi-legitimacy to his aggressive action. Without such legitimacy, it is quite conceivable that British and French public opinions would have demanded that Hitler be stopped while it was still possible. (The whole sorry story of Western passivity and vacillation in 1938-39 is recounted in minute, hour-by hour detail in William Shirer’ s classic: The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich.)

In more recent times, we witnessed violent and massive ethnic cleansing in Kosovo , the three-year long siege of a large city one hour flight from Rome, Sarajevo, and the starvation and daily bombing of its civilian population, and the massacre of thousands of men and boys, also in Bosnia. Most of these horrors could have been avoided by finely wrought enough secessions, even at county level if necessary.

A contrario examples abound of the healthful, virtuous nature of secession as a solution to intercommunal tensions. Some come from the most unlikely places.

The dissolution of Czechoslovakia – a radical form of secession – in 1993 was so peaceful that it went almost unperceived . The resulting Czech and Slovak Republics have since continued separately on their fairly prosperous paths. They maintain sound relationships as good neighbors (as very good neighbors, more or less like the US and Canada).

Paradoxically, today’s Iraq offers a striking example of the virtuousness of secession. The world follows with a tired eye Iraqi Arabs eviscerating each other along communal lines. That is, the Sunni Muslim Arabs there and the Shiite Muslim Arabs there are slaughtering each other every day, same as when the presence of Americans was said to cause all the murderous civil strife. Many Sunnis and many Shiites consider themselves members of existentially different groups. They do so for reasons that are probably difficult for Westerners to understand (except those who remember the Wars of Religion in Europe, of course, between 1520 and 1648.) It matters not; as far as they are concerned, those are reasons worth killing and dying for. Keeping them bottled up together, forced co-habitation, is not likely to attenuate these sentiments. (Think of ill-matched college roommates.)

In the meantime, you hardly ever hear of the Northern third of the same country, bloodied Iraq. I refer to “Kurdistan,” still formally a part of the Iraqi republic. Kurdistan, which does not exist officially, is people mostly by Kurds, a group with a distinctive language unrelated to Arabic. They comprise both Sunnis and Shiites. As far as the facts on the ground are concerned, Iraqi “Kurdistan” has achieved secession from its bloodied mother country. No shot was fired in spite of the quick-trigger violence of the Middle-East. The Kurdish area is so prosperous and so peaceful that others go there on vacation. The vacationers are first of all, Arabs from other parts of Iraq seeking relief from incessant violence in their part of the country. Second, Turks are crossing their southern border in increasing numbers for the same purpose . (May of those Turkish tourists are probably themselves ethnic Kurds.)

And we should not lose track of the fact that the 25 years of Saddam tyranny over all of Iraq, accompanied by internal massacres and two wars he started deliberately found what legitimacy it possessed in the supposedly sacred duty to keep Iraq unified. (Keep in mind that the Saddamite regime utterly lacked traditional legitimacy and religious legitimacy, or the political legitimacy that comes from winning fair elections, or any other source of legitimacy.)

Had Iraq broken up earlier into a Kurdish north, a Sunni center and a Shiite south, the world and, especially, the martyred Iraqi people, would have been spared enormous misery. It’s not too late to achieve this end.

I am speculating that many people’s unexamined attachment to the general concept of national border harks back to an earlier time, a time when they were coterminous with economic boundaries and with information boundaries. Not long ago, French citizens ate almost only French food, they wore only French-made clothing (there was even a lively traffic in illegal, smuggled blue jeans), and heard and read only news originating in France in French. All was produced almost entirely with French capital. National boundaries were then the very containers of our existence defined in the most concrete ways. None of this is true anymore for most countries. Borders are porous to most things including words (if not yet to people). Many people are thus ready to fight for a reality that disappeared quite a while ago.

A major more or less unintended effect of this pursuit of ghosts is that it easily turns to bloodshed, domestic and international. So, many Spaniard are resisting the threatened secession of Catalonia as if it would become a catastrophe of sorts for them. There is still little realization that nations that perceived themselves as homogeneous (for whatever reason) are spared major conflicts, including civil conflict. Homogeneous Denmark, with a similar level of development, is more peaceful than bi-community (linguistic communities) Belgium. Either a Walloon or a Flemish secession there would improve the lives of both Walloon and Fleming.

Secession is usually a good thing overall, for peace, and for individual liberties. Let them go and they will lose the ability to stab you in your own kitchen with your own kitchen knife. They may even become your friends, after a while.

N.B. I still have not heard anyone, or heard of anyone saying that he regretted voting for Obama. Amazing!

Диванные войска медленного реагирования

Ситуация на Украине, какой бы драматической и “исторической” она ни была – в любом случае проще чем нам преподносят ее в новостях и по телевизору. Конечно, у России и США, как основных “противоборствующих” наций в данном принципиальном вопросе – принципиально противоположные взгляды на ситуацию и на признание легитимности тех или иных властей. Все знали заранее, что так будет, и никто не удивляется. Как бы наши руководители не жали друг другу руки и не заглядывали друг другу в глаза – где-то на подсознательном уровне, мы для вас все равно “коммунистическая зараза”, а вы для нас “империя зла”. Это сложившаяся исторически реакция двух мировых держав, которые находятся на одной планете, всегда конкурировали и длительное время пребывали в состоянии “холодной войны” – с этим ничего не поделаешь, и это не повод для ругани или взаимных обид и оскорблений. Разумеется, мир ушел далеко вперед, и я, например, не чувствую себя овцой в стаде волков, являясь единственным русским представителем сообщества, которое в большинстве своем поддерживает позицию официального Белого Дома, Пентагона, или что-вы-там-еще-поддерживаете. Я просто знаю, что умные и думающие люди не опустятся до уровня хамства и оскорблений только потому что я не по всем пунктам разделяю позицию Обамы, или потому что я из России.

Я отвлекся. Ситуация на Украине не может быть такой серьезной, как она описывается в новостях со всеми этими внезапными скандалами, интригами и расследованиями. Однако обилие информации обоих направлений в интернете, зачастую публикующихся в непроверенных источниках – это настоящее поле боя для бойцов “диванных войск”. “Диванные войска” – это шуточное название троллей и просто очень глупых и упертых людей, которые с жаром бросаются на баррикады в комментариях, призывают к противоправным действиям, разжигают межнациональную рознь, и являются специалистами во всех областях и по всем направлениям. Разумеется, такие люди очень легко вычисляются, и к ним применимо обыкновенное анти-тролль правило: “не кормите тролля”. Практически любая статья во всех российских интернет-газетах, имеющая отношение к ситуации на Украине в рекордно низкие сроки собирает по 150-500 комментариев от таких вот “солдат”, которые, тщательно скрывая свой юный возраст или какие-либо комплексы и неполноценности строят из себя специалистов по внешней и внутренней политике, ветеранов всех видов десантных войск, морских пехотинцев и геополитических комментаторов. Читать подобные записи смешно. Думаю в ваших странах сейчас похожая ситуация. Однако нередко такие комментаторы способны посеять панику среди тех, кому попался на глаза их комментарий – что и является их основной целью. Друзья, не поддавайтесь на провокации!

Возвращаясь к нашей ситуации…

Привет,  друзья! Сложная ситуация на работе и обилие, собственно, самой работы не позволяет мне очень часто здесь появляться, хотя “историческое” время, в которое мы живем, в общем-то обязывает.

Сперва я думал опять поднять тему Украины, но потом решил слегка сменить курс: я не буду сам рассказывать про текущую политическую ситуацию в  стране, а попрошу вас, чтобы вы сами рассказали, какие сведения преподносят вам ваши новостные каналы, и как вы к этому относитесь. В общем, приглашаю подискутировать на эту тему в комментариях. Чтобы слегка сузить тему обсуждений, давайте поговорим о санкциях, которые зарубежные страны хотят ввести против России, и чем эти санкции могут обернуться для ваших стран. Не будем забывать, что в современном мире все взаимосвязано, и меры против нас неизбежно отразятся на экономике стран, эти меры применивших.

Санкт-Петербург живет своим чередом. Шок от событий в Киеве сменился какой-то апатией. Народ обсуждает новости, прекрасно понимая, что от разговоров ситуация не изменится, и что президент решит сам так, как нам будет лучше, на его взгляд. Несмотря на сильный ветер, в городе много отдыхающих, гуляющих, и туристов. Летние кафе потихоньку организуют обслуживание на свежем воздухе, а у Петропавловской Крепости уже можно встретить первых загорающих на солнце. Мариинский театр показывает спектакли, концерты и балеты. Кинотеатры крутят новинки кинематографа, а в Эрмитаж привозят временные выставки из всех уголков мира. Политика – это политика, а культура и жизнь – это культура и жизнь. По улицам моего города не бегают националисты с бейсбольными битами и призывами к насилию, даже полиция в метро проверяет подозрительных людей крайне деликатно. Периодически проводятся митинги за вмешательство или невмешательство в дела Крыма, на которые приходят разное количество людей: где-то побольше, где-то поменьше. В целом, жители моего города мало чем отличаются от жителей, скажем, Лондона или Лос-Анджелеса. Единственное, что нас сейчас различает – это то, каким образом промывают нам мозги средства массовой информации.

Ukraine

The Russian gangster state is about to take the Ukraine apart as I write.

This is not our fight, I think. There are no big American interests at stake. American lives are not endangered. As I write, there is not big humanitarian crisis (as there is in Syria, and continuing) either.

I hope we  mostly agree in this country that national borders are not sacred. We are not sworn to go to war to have them protected. If the Ukraine becomes two states  or if a part of it becomes incorporated into Russia, that’s alright with me. I hope it happens quickly and with little bloodletting.

The argument that we are on the side of Ukrainian democrats is not very convincing, right now. I just don’t know. I don’t think they know.

The main downside of this crisis, as I see it, is that President Obama was not able to keep his big mouth shut. He just gave another reason for political mafiosi, tin-pot dictators, savage tyrants, and pure fascist states such as Iran and North Korea to consider the US a paper tiger. That is very dangerous. It leads to gambling miscalculations, a la Saddam Hussein.

A Bit More on Ukraine

Evgeniy’s plea for balance in the Russia-Ukraine conflict has produced, in my mind, an interesting dialogue on propaganda – both of the Western and of the Russian variety.

Let me come out and say with some conviction that I am not a supporter of the Putin regime. Nor do I believe much of the analysis that comes out of the Russian press. (This is because the vast majority of the Russian press is controlled by the state, and not because it is Russian or because it generally espouses pro-Russian sympathies.)

Evgeniy, for example, cites reports from the Russian press claiming that half a million people have fled Ukraine for Russia since the beginning of the year (when the demonstrations started). If half a million people fled from one place to another in a month, from anywhere in the world it would be headline news, but for some reason only Russian citizens have heard of this exodus? I don’t buy it.

Now, this number may be a misunderstanding based on a bad translation. In fact, I think this may be the case. My translation of Evgeniy’s comment states that the Russian press reports that “since the beginning of the year (January 2014) in Russia has resettled about 500,000 refugees from Ukraine.” Emphasis mine. Has this resettlement been ongoing since the end of the Cold War? However, judging by Evgeniy’s comment, it looks as if resettlement has only begun in January of this year, so if this is indeed the claim that the Russian press is making then it is obviously false.

Terry’s excerpted quote from the Daily Beast fares no better in the facts department, though, despite the Daily Beast being a private organization. The op-ed is an attempt to debunk “Putin’s Crimea Propaganda Machine” as if Putin has the power to control everything the Russian press publishes. State control of the media, especially in a country as large and diverse as Russia, does not mean that the bureaucratic process magically disappears. Bureaucracies and especially regulators are actors in their own right, and as such are beholden to certain constraints and processes that come with the way these institutions are organized.

So in the spirit of open inquiry and debate, there are a couple of facts I’ve gathered that I think are important to note.

  1. The President of Ukraine was ousted in a coup. He was elected by a very slim margin and accusations (from both sides) of voter fraud were rampant.
  2. The opposition that recently installed a new President therefore gave democracy the finger. This is not in itself a bad thing, but many Western observers tend to side with the pro-West faction as if it was democratic. It is not.
  3. The exiled President signed an agreement with the opposition last month guaranteeing early elections and more power to the legislature at the expense of the executive branch. This is as peaceful and as democratic as it gets, and the opposition gave, as I said, the finger to this agreement.
  4. The opposition has fascists in its cabinet. It has also installed Ukrainian Jews to high-ranking positions. The Muslim Tartars in Crimea stand to lose the most during Russia’s occupation.
  5. Ukrainians are sick of their government – right or left, pro or anti -and this has yet to be addressed by anyone other than Dr Foldvary as far as I can tell.
  6. No shots have been fired. Moscow has reiterated that it is in Crimea to protect its naval base and Russian citizens. I have a feeling that Russian troops will be back in Russia within the year. Crimea will get to keep its autonomous status within Ukraine, and Kiev will be forced to think twice before it attempts to impose its will on Crimea arbitrarily. This is a good thing, as it limits the size and scope of government.
  7. So far most, if not all, information about military activities have been coming from governments, not from the free press. This can only lead to more misunderstanding and more suspicion.
  8. War is the health of the state. In times like these, journalists should be criticizing their own governments rather than the governments of others. In the West, where the press remains relatively free, there is more criticism of government policies concerning foreign affairs than there is in Russia.

At the end of the day, I have to agree with Evgeniy’s plea for toleration and prudence: “Please do not judge this conflict only from one side.”

Towards a Free and Prosperous Ukraine

The violence in Ukraine demonstrates once again the failure of centralized democracy. Whenever we see masses of people protesting and rallying in the city streets and squares, it shows that the structure of government has failed. The prime purpose of democracy is social peace. The mass demonstrations show that the people cannot express their views and make policy decisions through the formal channels of government, so they take to the streets.

When government fails, there is another path towards political change: civil disobedience. Rather than massing in the city square or taking control of government buildings, the protestors can stop obeying the government. They can stop paying taxes and stop obeying unjust rules. Civil disobedience is how India won independence and the US civil rights movement ended segregation. Today, protestors use social media to spread the message. Some activists will be put in prison, but there is not enough room to put half the population in jail.

The conflict in Ukraine originated in the 2010 election for president, in which the opposition accused the winner of fraud. The protests began in November 2013, when the president switched from making a trade agreement with the European Union in favor of a pact with Russia, which provided aid to the government of Ukraine.

The protests in Ukraine were intended to be peaceful, but mass protests often become an attractive nuisance for provocateurs. When a small minority of protesters start throwing rocks or fire bombs at the police, that becomes the signal for the police to use lethal force, and then the protestors return fire, and the result is violence and death. Peaceful civil disobedience is decentralized and does not provide such a venue for the chaos makers.

Ukraine is the largest country that is entirely in Europe. It was in the Russian Empire until the Bolshevik revolution of 1917, when it became an independent state. It soon became a republic within the USSR. The Soviet structure of councils and republics served to preserve the identity of Ukraine, which even had its own membership in the United Nations, and achieved independence with the break-up of the USSR in 1991.

Now, in February 2014, following the failure of government repression, the Ukrainian parliament has dismissed the president, restored the 2004 constitution, freed the previous prime minister, and appointed an acting president. The agreement between the government and the opposition was facilitated by the foreign ministers of France, Germany, Poland and a representative of the president of Russia.

The national anthem of the country is “Ukraine has not yet perished.” Millions of Ukrainians died during the years of forced collectivization under the Soviet Union, and more millions, including many Jews, were slaughtered during World War II, but the Ukrainian identity has persevered. Ukrainians now have a unique opportunity to reshape their future.

Some of the conflict in Ukraine comes from its ethnic mix. The westernmost part of the country was part of Poland prior to World War II, although that territory along other neighboring areas had been Ukrainian previously. In 1954, the Crimea was transferred from the Russian Republic to Ukraine. The eastern half of Ukraine is culturally Russian; the main religion is Eastern Orthodox. The western part is ethnically Ukrainian and Catholic, and the people of western cities such as Lviv identify with Europe. Ukraine needs to restructure its governance as well as its economy in order to achieve social peace and prosperity.

Ukraine has a centralized government, but also has 24 provinces, plus the nominally autonomous republic of the Crimea, and two city districts, Kiev and Sevastopol. The democracy of Ukraine can become more authentic by decentralizing the governance into a federation of its subdivisions. An association agreement with the European Union should reduce trade barriers, while the Ukraine should also pursue free trade with Russia and its other neighbors.

The economy of Ukraine suffers from its oppressive tax system. The new tax code adopted in 2011 has 18 national and 5 local taxes. The major taxes include corporate and personal income taxes, a value added tax, and excise taxes. But there is also an economy-friendly, though small, land tax, and royalty taxes on the extraction of natural resources. The current tax rate on corporate gross income is 16 percent. The value-added tax rate of 17 percent is imposed on the sale of goods, including imports. There is also a high social security tax of up to 49.7 percent.

Ukraine’s land tax is paid by the owners and users of land. The tax rates depend on the use of the land. For pastures, the rate is one-tenth percent of the land value, and for farms the rate is three-hundredths of a percent. There are also local real estate taxes per square meter of dwelling space with the tax rate from 1% to 2.7% of the monthly minimum wage.

The Ukranian tax system has been criticized for its complexity, its disincentives to labor and enterprise. and its inducement for tax evasion. Ukraine has the potential to become a great agricultural and industrial economy, but its tax and regulatory policies have been holding it back. The Fraser Institute’s index of economic freedom calculates Ukraine’s level at 6.16 on a range from zero to pure freedom at 10. Out of 152 economies, Ukraine ranks 126 in economic freedom, near the bottom among the countries of the world. The Heritage Foundation index also ranks Ukraine as “repressed,” especially low on investment freedom and freedom from corruption.

If Ukranians seek prosperity, they would be wise to eliminate all their taxes other than the land tax and also enact national and local pollution taxes. The land value tax should be uniform for all land, based on its current market price or rent when put to its best use, regardless of its current use. The elimination of the other taxes would stop tax evasion and liberate the underground economy.

Ukrainians should stop blindly copying the dysfunctional tax system of the European Union and adopt a modern 21st century public finance system suitable to the global economy and Ukraine’s position between Russia and the EU. They can avoid either joining the EU or a Russian-led Eurasian Union by legislating free trade with both regions. They should enact domestic free trade by avoiding the taxation of labor, enterprise, and produced wealth. With rising public revenue from land value, and with rising wages, Ukraine could reduce its social security taxes until the government either funds pensions from land rent or replace government pensions with private retirement accounts.

Land-value taxation would also promote a decentralization of governance and a reduction of corruption. The land of Ukraine is rich and can well support its public finance, and let Ukraine to not just avoid perishing, but to flourish.